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Pakistan tour of Australia · 2024/25 · Men
8 Nov 2024 · ODI
Adelaide Oval · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 75%; Australia batted first.
Australia's chances ranged from 0% to 85% during the match (Pakistan: 15% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Shortcaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Shaheen Afridi 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Shaheen Afridi | 19 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 126.67 |
| Jake Fraser-McGurklbw · Shaheen Afridi 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Shaheen Afridi | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 130.00 |
 Steve Smithcaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Mohammad Hasnain5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Mohammad Hasnain | 35 | 48 | 5 | 1 | 72.92 |
 Josh Ingliscaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Haris Rauf2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Haris Rauf | 18 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 72.00 |
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Haris Rauf |
| 6 |
| 11 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 54.55 |
| Aaron Hardiecaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Haris Rauf 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Haris Rauf | 14 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 48.28 |
|---|
 Glenn Maxwellbowled · Haris Rauf0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Haris Rauf | 16 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 76.19 |
|---|
 Pat Cumminscaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Haris Rauf0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Haris Rauf | 13 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 76.47 |
|---|
 Mitchell Starccaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Naseem Shah0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Naseem Shah | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
 Adam Zampabowled · Shaheen Afridi1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Shaheen Afridi | 18 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 85.71 |
|---|
 Josh Hazlewoodnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 26 | 3 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Naseem Shah0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 65 | 1 | 6.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Mohammad Hasnain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Haris Rauf0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 29 | 5 | 3.63 | 4 | 0 |
| Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 4.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-21 (Jake Fraser-McGurk, 2.2) · 2-41 (Matthew Short, 6.1) · 3-79 (Josh Inglis, 13.3) · 4-87 (Marnus Labuschagne, 15.5) · 5-101 (Steve Smith, 20.5) · 6-121 (Aaron Hardie, 25.2) · 7-129 (Glenn Maxwell, 27.2) · 8-130 (Mitchell Starc, 28.2) · 9-146 (Pat Cummins, 31.4) · 10-163 (Adam Zampa, 35.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 20/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 21/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 26/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 32/1 |
| 6 | 9 | 41/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 46/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 47/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 52/2 |
| 10 | 7 | 59/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 61/2 |
| 12 | 9 | 70/2 |
| 13 | 8 | 78/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 82/3 |
| 15 | 3 | 85/3 |
| 16 | 3 | 88/4 |
| 17 | 0 | 88/4 |
| 18 | 4 | 92/4 |
| 19 | 1 | 93/4 |
| 20 | 2 | 95/4 |
| 21 | 6 | 101/5 |
| 22 | 5 | 106/5 |
| 23 | 5 | 111/5 |
| 24 | 7 | 118/5 |
| 25 | 2 | 120/5 |
| 26 | 3 | 123/6 |
| 27 | 3 | 126/6 |
| 28 | 4 | 130/7 |
| 29 | 1 | 131/8 |
| 30 | 1 | 132/8 |
| 31 | 13 | 145/8 |
| 32 | 1 | 146/9 |
| 33 | 1 | 147/9 |
| 34 | 14 | 161/9 |
| 35 | 2 | 163/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Abdullah Shafique: Dave Morton · Public domain
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Glenn Maxwell: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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