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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025 · Men
6 May 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Netherlands started on 75%; Netherlands batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Levittcaught · Sagar Kalyan · D Parashar 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sagar Kalyan · b D Parashar | 41 | 63 | 5 | 0 | 65.08 |
| Max O'Dowdcaught · Muhammad Jawadullah · SS Kang 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Muhammad Jawadullah · b SS Kang | 48 | 75 | 4 | 0 | 64.00 |
| Scott Edwardscaught · Sagar Kalyan · SS Kang 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sagar Kalyan · b SS Kang | 74 | 78 | 4 | 1 | 94.87 |
 Zach Lion-Cachetstumped · Aryansh Sharma · Aayan Afzal Khan2 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Aryansh Sharma · b Aayan Afzal Khan | 47 | 53 | 2 | 0 | 88.68 |
| Teja Nidamanurubowled · Aayan Afzal Khan0 fours · 2 sixes |
Netherlands's chances ranged from 74% to 100% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 0% to 26%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Aayan Afzal Khan |
| 15 |
| 11 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 136.36 |
 Bas de Leedenot out0 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 21* | 12 | 0 | 2 | 175.00 |
|---|
| Noah Croescaught · Vriitya Aravind · Junaid Siddique 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Vriitya Aravind · b Junaid Siddique | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Kyle Kleinbowled · Aayan Afzal Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Aayan Afzal Khan | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Roelof van der Merwenot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 11 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junaid Siddique1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 50 | 1 | 5.00 | 2 | 0 |
 Alishan Sharafu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Aayan Afzal Khan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 60 | 3 | 6.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Muhammad Jawadullah0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 4.40 | 3 | 0 |
| SS Kang0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 56 | 2 | 5.60 | 0 | 0 |
| D Parashar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-85 (Michael Levitt, 19.5) · 2-116 (Max O'Dowd, 27.1) · 3-216 (Scott Edwards, 43.5) · 4-227 (Zach Lion-Cachet, 45.4) · 5-244 (Teja Nidamanuru, 47.3) · 6-251 (Noah Croes, 48.2) · 7-265 (Kyle Klein, 49.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 18/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 26/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 30/0 |
| 7 | 0 | 30/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 32/0 |
| 9 | 4 | 36/0 |
| 10 | 6 | 42/0 |
| 11 | 6 | 48/0 |
| 12 | 1 | 49/0 |
| 13 | 3 | 52/0 |
| 14 | 6 | 58/0 |
| 15 | 5 | 63/0 |
| 16 | 9 | 72/0 |
| 17 | 6 | 78/0 |
| 18 | 1 | 79/0 |
| 19 | 2 | 81/0 |
| 20 | 5 | 86/1 |
| 21 | 2 | 88/1 |
| 22 | 4 | 92/1 |
| 23 | 5 | 97/1 |
| 24 | 4 | 101/1 |
| 25 | 2 | 103/1 |
| 26 | 5 | 108/1 |
| 27 | 8 | 116/1 |
| 28 | 2 | 118/2 |
| 29 | 3 | 121/2 |
| 30 | 5 | 126/2 |
| 31 | 8 | 134/2 |
| 32 | 6 | 140/2 |
| 33 | 7 | 147/2 |
| 34 | 5 | 152/2 |
| 35 | 9 | 161/2 |
| 36 | 8 | 169/2 |
| 37 | 8 | 177/2 |
| 38 | 4 | 181/2 |
| 39 | 6 | 187/2 |
| 40 | 7 | 194/2 |
| 41 | 4 | 198/2 |
| 42 | 9 | 207/2 |
| 43 | 5 | 212/2 |
| 44 | 4 | 216/3 |
| 45 | 5 | 221/3 |
| 46 | 7 | 228/4 |
| 47 | 13 | 241/4 |
| 48 | 8 | 249/5 |
| 49 | 7 | 256/6 |
| 50 | 16 | 272/7 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Zach Lion-Cachet: Dave Morton · Public domain
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
