**The County Ground, Hove**
Photo: John Sutton
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

GloucestershireversusSussex

31 May 2024 · T20

The County Ground, Hove · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sussex won by 3 wickets

Gloucestershire20.0 overs167/8 Sussex20.0 overs168/7 The County Ground, Hove ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gloucestershire started on 47%; Gloucestershire batted first.

Gloucestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Sussex is the rest

Gloucestershire's chances ranged from 3% to 77% during the match (Sussex: 23% to 97%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 13.2: M de Lange to JA Simpson, JA Simpson out. Gloucestershire up from 32% to 51%.
2nd inns 19.1: MD Taylor to FJ Hudson-Prentice, FJ Hudson-Prentice out. Gloucestershire up from 40% to 62%.
2nd inns 19.4: MD Taylor to JJ Carson, six by JJ Carson. Sussex up from 29% to 83%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Gloucestershire167/8 Sussex168/7

Innings 1