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Pakistan tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Men
29 Mar 2025 · ODI
McLean Park, Napier · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 59%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Youngcaught · Salman Ali Agha · Naseem Shah0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Salman Ali Agha · b Naseem Shah | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 9.09 |
| Nick Kellybowled · Akif Javed 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Akif Javed | 15 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 51.72 |
| Henry Nichollscaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Akif Javed 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Akif Javed | 11 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 44.00 |
| Mark Chapmancaught · Tayyab Tahir · Irfan Khan 13 fours · 6 sixes | caught · Tayyab Tahir · b Irfan Khan | 132 | 111 | 13 | 6 | 118.92 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Irfan Khan 4 fours · 4 sixes |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 60%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 76 |
| 84 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 90.48 |
 Muhammad Abbascaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Mohammad Ali3 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Mohammad Ali | 52 | 26 | 3 | 3 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Michael Bracewellcaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Haris Rauf 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Haris Rauf | 9 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 128.57 |
|---|
| Mitchell Haycaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Haris Rauf 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Haris Rauf | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nathan Smithcaught · Mohammad Wasim · Irfan Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Wasim · b Irfan Khan | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
 Jacob Duffynot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 7 · legbyes: 13 · wides: 21 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Naseem Shah1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 60 | 1 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Akif Javed1 maidens · 7 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 55 | 2 | 5.50 | 7 | 1 |
| Mohammad Ali0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 53 | 1 | 5.30 | 5 | 0 |
 Haris Rauf1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 38 | 2 | 3.80 | 3 | 0 |
| Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 67 | 0 | 13.40 | 1 | 1 |
| Irfan Khan0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 51 | 3 | 10.20 | 4 | 0 |
1-8 (Will Young, 3.0) · 2-33 (Nick Kelly, 8.2) · 3-50 (Henry Nicholls, 12.4) · 4-249 (Daryl Mitchell, 41.3) · 5-280 (Mark Chapman, 43.3) · 6-299 (Michael Bracewell, 45.3) · 7-299 (Mitchell Hay, 45.5) · 8-306 (Nathan Smith, 46.4) · 9-344 (Muhammad Abbas, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 8/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 15/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 16/1 |
| 6 | 9 | 25/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 31/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 33/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 33/2 |
| 10 | 3 | 36/2 |
| 11 | 6 | 42/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 49/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 50/3 |
| 14 | 3 | 53/3 |
| 15 | 5 | 58/3 |
| 16 | 1 | 59/3 |
| 17 | 4 | 63/3 |
| 18 | 2 | 65/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 67/3 |
| 20 | 8 | 75/3 |
| 21 | 4 | 79/3 |
| 22 | 11 | 90/3 |
| 23 | 3 | 93/3 |
| 24 | 6 | 99/3 |
| 25 | 5 | 104/3 |
| 26 | 8 | 112/3 |
| 27 | 8 | 120/3 |
| 28 | 7 | 127/3 |
| 29 | 19 | 146/3 |
| 30 | 10 | 156/3 |
| 31 | 6 | 162/3 |
| 32 | 3 | 165/3 |
| 33 | 2 | 167/3 |
| 34 | 7 | 174/3 |
| 35 | 4 | 178/3 |
| 36 | 11 | 189/3 |
| 37 | 12 | 201/3 |
| 38 | 7 | 208/3 |
| 39 | 14 | 222/3 |
| 40 | 10 | 232/3 |
| 41 | 16 | 248/3 |
| 42 | 7 | 255/4 |
| 43 | 19 | 274/4 |
| 44 | 18 | 292/5 |
| 45 | 6 | 298/5 |
| 46 | 2 | 300/7 |
| 47 | 8 | 308/8 |
| 48 | 5 | 313/8 |
| 49 | 19 | 332/8 |
| 50 | 12 | 344/9 |
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Usman Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Muhammad Abbas: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Abdullah Shafique: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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