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Photo: Dave Morton
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2023/24 · Men
1 Mar 2024 · ODI
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 71%; Scotland batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Munseycaught · Shreyas Movva · Nicholas Kirton 7 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Nicholas Kirton | 68 | 101 | 7 | 1 | 67.33 |
 Andrew Umeedcaught · Srimantha Wijeratne · Ammar Khalid0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Srimantha Wijeratne · b Ammar Khalid | 8 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 34.78 |
| Brandon McMullencaught · Aaron Johnson · Saad Bin Zafar 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aaron Johnson · b Saad Bin Zafar | 19 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 65.52 |
| Richie Berringtonbowled · Nicholas Kirton 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nicholas Kirton | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 13.33 |
| Matty Crosscaught · Nicholas Kirton · Dillon Heyliger2 fours · 0 sixes |
Scotland's chances ranged from 0% to 79% during the match (Canada: 21% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Nicholas Kirton · b Dillon Heyliger |
| 30 |
| 41 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 73.17 |
| Michael Leaskcaught · Navneet Dhaliwal · Dillon Heyliger 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Navneet Dhaliwal · b Dillon Heyliger | 40 | 44 | 3 | 0 | 90.91 |
|---|
 Mark Wattcaught · Shreyas Movva · Kaleem Sana2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Kaleem Sana | 21 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Chris Greavesnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 11 | 0 | 0 | 36.36 |
|---|
| Scott Currierun out · Srimantha Wijeratne, Nicholas Kirton · Ammar Khalid 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Srimantha Wijeratne, Nicholas Kirton | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 13 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 25 | 1 | 2.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Ammar Khalid0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 4.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Harsh Thaker0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 4.11 | 1 | 0 |
| Dillon Heyliger0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 49 | 2 | 4.90 | 1 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 38 | 1 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Nicholas Kirton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 3.71 | 0 | 0 |
1-22 (Andrew Umeed, 7.4) · 2-61 (Brandon McMullen, 18.3) · 3-78 (Richie Berrington, 23.0) · 4-114 (George Munsey, 30.5) · 5-164 (Matty Cross, 39.4) · 6-187 (Michael Leask, 45.2) · 7-206 (Mark Watt, 48.3) · 8-215 (Scott Currie, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 17/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 17/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 18/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 20/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 22/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 22/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 28/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 31/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 33/1 |
| 13 | 3 | 36/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 38/1 |
| 15 | 8 | 46/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 51/1 |
| 17 | 3 | 54/1 |
| 18 | 7 | 61/1 |
| 19 | 0 | 61/2 |
| 20 | 1 | 62/2 |
| 21 | 8 | 70/2 |
| 22 | 5 | 75/2 |
| 23 | 3 | 78/3 |
| 24 | 4 | 82/3 |
| 25 | 1 | 83/3 |
| 26 | 9 | 92/3 |
| 27 | 4 | 96/3 |
| 28 | 1 | 97/3 |
| 29 | 7 | 104/3 |
| 30 | 8 | 112/3 |
| 31 | 2 | 114/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 116/4 |
| 33 | 5 | 121/4 |
| 34 | 7 | 128/4 |
| 35 | 4 | 132/4 |
| 36 | 8 | 140/4 |
| 37 | 7 | 147/4 |
| 38 | 8 | 155/4 |
| 39 | 5 | 160/4 |
| 40 | 4 | 164/5 |
| 41 | 3 | 167/5 |
| 42 | 2 | 169/5 |
| 43 | 3 | 172/5 |
| 44 | 5 | 177/5 |
| 45 | 8 | 185/5 |
| 46 | 2 | 187/6 |
| 47 | 8 | 195/6 |
| 48 | 10 | 205/6 |
| 49 | 1 | 206/7 |
| 50 | 9 | 215/8 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Andrew Umeed: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
