Sharjah WarriorzversusMI Emirates

14 Dec 2025 · T20

Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sharjah Warriorz won by 6 runs

Sharjah Warriorz20.0 overs174/3 MI Emirates20.0 overs168/5 Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sharjah Warriorz started on 44%; Sharjah Warriorz batted first.

Sharjah Warriorz’s chance of winning (%) · MI Emirates is the rest

Sharjah Warriorz's chances ranged from 23% to 98% during the match (MI Emirates: 2% to 77%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 7.2: Sikandar Raza to JM Bairstow, JM Bairstow out. Sharjah Warriorz up from 23% to 35%.
2nd inns 9.4: Sikandar Raza to Waseem Muhammad, Waseem Muhammad out. Sharjah Warriorz up from 33% to 46%.
2nd inns 12.6: M Pathirana to T Banton, T Banton out. Sharjah Warriorz up from 57% to 69%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sharjah Warriorz174/3 MI Emirates168/5

Innings 1