**County Ground, Bristol**
Photo: Barry Dogger
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

SussexversusGloucestershire

9 Jun 2024 · T20

County Ground, Bristol · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sussex won by 48 runs

Sussex20.0 overs208/6 Gloucestershire20.0 overs160/8 County Ground, Bristol ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sussex started on 46%; Sussex batted first.

Sussex’s chance of winning (%) · Gloucestershire is the rest

Sussex's chances ranged from 26% to 100% during the match (Gloucestershire: 0% to 74%).

Biggest swings

2.1: DA Payne to HD Ward, HD Ward out. Gloucestershire up from 48% to 59%.
3.1: J Shaw to OJ Carter, OJ Carter out. Gloucestershire up from 62% to 73%.
2nd inns 5.1: OE Robinson to Miles Hammond, Miles Hammond out. Sussex up from 72% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sussex208/6 Gloucestershire160/8

Innings 1

Sussex

208/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sussex batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Harrison Wardcaught · Ajeet Dale · David Payne 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ajeet Dale · b David Payne	10	10	2	0	100.00
Daniel Hughesbowled · Josh Shaw 10 fours · 2 sixes	bowled · b Josh Shaw	65	35	10	2	185.71
Oli Carterlbw · Josh Shaw 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Josh Shaw	1	6	0	0	16.67
James Colescaught · Jack Taylor · Graeme van Buuren 7 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Jack Taylor · b Graeme van Buuren	54	33	7	1	163.64
Tom Alsopnot out 0 fours · 3 sixes	not out	28*	17	0	3	164.71

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
David Payne0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	1	5.25	1	0
Josh Shaw0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	3	6.75	3	0
Graeme van Buuren0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	31	1	10.33	1	0
Ajeet Dale0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls	4.0	60	0	15.00	0	2
Beau Webster0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	37	0	12.33	0	0
Ollie Price0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	29	0	14.50	6	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	8	15/0
3	1	16/1
4	5	21/2
5	13	34/2
6	11	45/2
7	9	54/2
8	10	64/2
9	12	76/2
10	9	85/2
11	19	104/2
12	15	119/2
13	10	129/3
14	13	142/3
15	8	150/4
16	12	162/4
17	6	168/5
18	4	172/6
19	7	179/6
20	29	208/6

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SussexversusGloucestershire

Sussex won by 48 runs

How the win chances moved

Biggest swings

Sussex

Fall of wickets