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Lesotho tour of Botswana · 2025/26 · Men
12 Mar 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Botswana more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Botswana started on 80%; Botswana batted first.
Botswana's chances ranged from 43% to 97% during the match (Lesotho: 3% to 57%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L Pereracaught and bowled · Inshaf Farook 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Inshaf Farook | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
| Vinoo Balakrishnanlbw · Mohammed Jamadar 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mohammed Jamadar | 27 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 90.00 |
| L Maphanestumped · Chachole Tlali · Bahlakoana Mejaro 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Chachole Tlali · b Bahlakoana Mejaro | 7 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 58.33 |
| DA Senthilcaught · Inshaf Farook · Bahlakoana Mejaro 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Inshaf Farook · b Bahlakoana Mejaro | 7 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 46.67 |
| P Silasbowled · Ts'episo Chaoana 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ts'episo Chaoana | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| caught · Mohammed Jamadar · b Ajaz Patel |
| 22 |
| 18 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 122.22 |
| Thatayaone Tshosecaught · LM Gabriel · Bahlakoana Mejaro 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · LM Gabriel · b Bahlakoana Mejaro | 14 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 93.33 |
|---|
| Dhruv Maisuriarun out · Chachole Tlali, Bahlakoana Mejaro · Waseem Yaqoob 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Chachole Tlali, Bahlakoana Mejaro | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| B Khumalocaught · Inshaf Farook · Waseem Yaqoob 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Inshaf Farook · b Waseem Yaqoob | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
| Mmoloki Mooketsinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| B Kgosiemangnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inshaf Farook1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 5.33 | 4 | 0 |
| Waseem Yaqoob0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ts'episo Chaoana0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 8.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Mohammed Jamadar0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Bahlakoana Mejaro0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Ajaz Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-11 (L Perera, 2.4) · 2-39 (L Maphane, 7.3) · 3-48 (Vinoo Balakrishnan, 10.2) · 4-53 (DA Senthil, 11.2) · 5-55 (P Silas, 12.1) · 6-84 (B van Zyl, 15.5) · 7-93 (Thatayaone Tshose, 17.5) · 8-98 (Dhruv Maisuria, 19.3) · 9-100 (B Khumalo, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 11/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 16/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 22/1 |
| 6 | 11 | 33/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 38/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 41/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 44/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 48/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 52/3 |
| 12 | 3 | 55/4 |
| 13 | 6 | 61/5 |
| 14 | 6 | 67/5 |
| 15 | 9 | 76/5 |
| 16 | 8 | 84/6 |
| 17 | 6 | 90/6 |
| 18 | 3 | 93/7 |
| 19 | 4 | 97/7 |
| 20 | 5 | 102/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.