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North America T20 Cup · 2025 · Men
26 Apr 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Canada more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Cayman Islands started on 26%; Cayman Islands batted first.
Cayman Islands's chances ranged from 0% to 42% during the match (Canada: 58% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Bakercaught · Kaleem Sana · Saad Bin Zafar 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kaleem Sana · b Saad Bin Zafar | 27 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 158.82 |
| Sacha De Alwiscaught · Shreyas Movva · Jaskaran Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Jaskaran Singh | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| S Fostercaught · Ali Nadeem · Jaskaran Singh 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ali Nadeem · b Jaskaran Singh | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 140.00 |
 Ramon Sealybowled · Jaskaran Singh4 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Jaskaran Singh | 47 | 43 | 4 | 1 | 109.30 |
| R Walkerbowled · Kaleem Sana 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kaleem Sana |
| 33 |
| 43 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 76.74 |
| ROC Dunkacaught · YS Samra · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · YS Samra · b Kaleem Sana | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Romario Edwardsbowled · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kaleem Sana | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Conroy Wrightlbw · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kaleem Sana | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Alistair Ifillnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| A Wrightnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 1 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 4 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Jaskaran Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 3 | 6.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Sukhjinder Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Harsh Thaker0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Shivam Sharma (3)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 6.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-10 (Sacha De Alwis, 1.4) · 2-29 (S Foster, 3.2) · 3-56 (J Baker, 6.1) · 4-104 (R Walker, 16.4) · 5-116 (ROC Dunka, 18.4) · 6-116 (Romario Edwards, 18.5) · 7-116 (Conroy Wright, 19.0) · 8-118 (Ramon Sealy, 19.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 12/1 |
| 3 | 13 | 25/1 |
| 4 | 10 | 35/2 |
| 5 | 13 | 48/2 |
| 6 | 8 | 56/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 59/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 64/3 |
| 9 | 6 | 70/3 |
| 10 | 3 | 73/3 |
| 11 | 3 | 76/3 |
| 12 | 8 | 84/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 89/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 94/3 |
| 15 | 3 | 97/3 |
| 16 | 6 | 103/3 |
| 17 | 1 | 104/4 |
| 18 | 7 | 111/4 |
| 19 | 5 | 116/7 |
| 20 | 6 | 122/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
