ZimbabweversusNew Zealand

18 Jul 2025 · T20

Harare Sports Club · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 8 wickets

Zimbabwe20.0 overs120/7 New Zealand13.5 overs122/2 Harare Sports Club ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

27%Zimbabwe73%New Zealand

Why

In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 6 and Zimbabwe won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,658 vs 1,564 on our results rating)
Zimbabwe are playing at home in Zimbabwe

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zimbabwe started on 26%; Zimbabwe batted first.

Zimbabwe’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 0% to 39% during the match (New Zealand: 61% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.5: AF Milne to BJ Bennett, six by BJ Bennett. Zimbabwe up from 31% to 35%.
5.2: MJ Henry to BJ Bennett, BJ Bennett out. New Zealand up from 64% to 71%.
9.4: R Ravindra to C Madande, C Madande out. New Zealand up from 70% to 75%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zimbabwe120/7 New Zealand122/2

Innings 1

Zimbabwe

120/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Zimbabwe batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Wesley Madheverebowled · Adam Milne 4 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Adam Milne	36	32	4	0	112.50
Brian Bennettcaught · Bevon Jacobs · Matt Henry 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Bevon Jacobs · b Matt Henry	21	20	1	1	105.00
Clive Madandestumped · Tim Seifert · Rachin Ravindra 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Tim Seifert · b Rachin Ravindra	8	13	0	0	61.54
Sikandar Razacaught · Mark Chapman · Mitchell Santner 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mark Chapman · b Mitchell Santner	12	18	1	0	66.67

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Matt Henry0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	3	6.50	0
Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	17	0	5.67	1
Adam Milne0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	1	7.50	0
Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	1	4.50	0
Michael Bracewell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	15	1	7.50	0
Rachin Ravindra0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	10	1	3.33	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	11	11/0
2	4	15/0
3	9	24/0
4	6	30/0
5	6	36/0
6	3	39/1
7	3	42/1
8	9	51/1
9	6	57/1
10	4	61/2
11	8	69/2
12	2	71/2
13	7	78/3
14	6	84/4
15	7	91/4
16	2	93/5
17	6	99/6
18	7	106/6
19	8	114/6
20	6	120/7

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