Los Angeles Knight RidersversusTexas Super Kings

5 Jul 2024 · T20

Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Los Angeles Knight Riders won by 12 runs

Los Angeles Knight Riders20.0 overs162/7 Texas Super Kings20.0 overs150/8 Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Los Angeles Knight Riders started on 46%; Los Angeles Knight Riders batted first.

Los Angeles Knight Riders’s chance of winning (%) · Texas Super Kings is the rest

Los Angeles Knight Riders's chances ranged from 23% to 99% during the match (Texas Super Kings: 1% to 77%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.3: SH Johnson to F du Plessis, F du Plessis out. Los Angeles Knight Riders up from 49% to 62%.
2nd inns 13.5: Ali Khan to J Tromp, J Tromp out. Los Angeles Knight Riders up from 51% to 64%.
2nd inns 13.6: Ali Khan to Milind Kumar, Milind Kumar out. Los Angeles Knight Riders up from 64% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Los Angeles Knight Riders162/7 Texas Super Kings150/8

Innings 1