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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Ireland tour of Zimbabwe · 2024/25 · Men
16 Feb 2025 · ODI
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 50%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Bennettcaught · Paul Stirling · Mark Adair 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Paul Stirling · b Mark Adair | 30 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 88.24 |
| Ben Curranbowled · Andrew McBrine 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Andrew McBrine | 18 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Craig Ervinebowled · Joshua Little0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Joshua Little | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Wesley Madheverelbw · Curtis Campher 6 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Curtis Campher | 61 | 70 | 6 | 0 | 87.14 |
 Sikandar Razacaught · Harry Tector · Mark Adair5 fours · 0 sixes |
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 0% to 67% during the match (Ireland: 33% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Harry Tector · b Mark Adair |
| 58 |
| 75 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 77.33 |
 Johnathan Campbellcaught · Lorcan Tucker · Curtis Campher0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lorcan Tucker · b Curtis Campher | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Tadiwanashe Marumanilbw · Curtis Campher 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Curtis Campher | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Wellington Masakadzabowled · Graham Hume 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Graham Hume | 35 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Richard Ngaravanot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 17* | 18 | 2 | 0 | 94.44 |
|---|
| Blessing Muzarabanibowled · Mark Adair 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mark Adair | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Trevor Gwandubowled · Mark Adair 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mark Adair | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 9 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Adair0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 54 | 4 | 5.40 | 3 | 0 |
| Graham Hume0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 47 | 1 | 4.70 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Little1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 56 | 1 | 6.22 | 5 | 0 |
| Matthew Humphreys0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 3.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Andrew McBrine1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 36 | 1 | 5.14 | 0 | 0 |
| Curtis Campher1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 2.60 | 1 | 0 |
1-38 (Brian Bennett, 7.0) · 2-47 (Craig Ervine, 11.2) · 3-77 (Ben Curran, 16.2) · 4-151 (Wesley Madhevere, 32.5) · 5-157 (Johnathan Campbell, 34.3) · 6-157 (Tadiwanashe Marumani, 34.5) · 7-207 (Sikandar Raza, 43.1) · 8-232 (Wellington Masakadza, 46.0) · 9-233 (Blessing Muzarabani, 46.3) · 10-245 (Trevor Gwandu, 49.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 13/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 19/0 |
| 6 | 10 | 29/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 38/1 |
| 8 | 0 | 38/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 40/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 43/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 45/1 |
| 12 | 9 | 54/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 57/2 |
| 14 | 9 | 66/2 |
| 15 | 7 | 73/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 77/2 |
| 17 | 0 | 77/3 |
| 18 | 1 | 78/3 |
| 19 | 7 | 85/3 |
| 20 | 4 | 89/3 |
| 21 | 2 | 91/3 |
| 22 | 6 | 97/3 |
| 23 | 10 | 107/3 |
| 24 | 6 | 113/3 |
| 25 | 8 | 121/3 |
| 26 | 5 | 126/3 |
| 27 | 4 | 130/3 |
| 28 | 6 | 136/3 |
| 29 | 5 | 141/3 |
| 30 | 5 | 146/3 |
| 31 | 2 | 148/3 |
| 32 | 3 | 151/3 |
| 33 | 1 | 152/4 |
| 34 | 5 | 157/4 |
| 35 | 0 | 157/6 |
| 36 | 6 | 163/6 |
| 37 | 8 | 171/6 |
| 38 | 4 | 175/6 |
| 39 | 2 | 177/6 |
| 40 | 6 | 183/6 |
| 41 | 6 | 189/6 |
| 42 | 12 | 201/6 |
| 43 | 6 | 207/6 |
| 44 | 9 | 216/7 |
| 45 | 8 | 224/7 |
| 46 | 8 | 232/8 |
| 47 | 4 | 236/9 |
| 48 | 3 | 239/9 |
| 49 | 6 | 245/10 |
Johnathan Campbell: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Craig Ervine: TheCricketer · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew Balbirnie: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew McBrine: AssociateAffiliate · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
