NepalversusCanada

1 Oct 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Canada won by 4 wickets

Nepal20.0 overs139/6 Canada19.3 overs140/6 Maple Leaf North-West Ground, King City ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

51%Nepal49%Canada

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Nepal rate stronger than Canada (1,491 vs 1,447 on our results rating)
Canada are playing at home in Canada

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nepal started on 48%; Nepal batted first.

Nepal’s chance of winning (%) · Canada is the rest

Nepal's chances ranged from 2% to 87% during the match (Canada: 13% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 14.1: S Lamichhane to S Movva, S Movva out. Nepal up from 43% to 61%.
2nd inns 14.3: S Lamichhane to D Heyliger, D Heyliger out. Nepal up from 64% to 83%.
2nd inns 18.1: Karan KC to Saad Bin Zafar, six by Saad Bin Zafar. Canada up from 44% to 72%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nepal139/6 Canada140/6

Innings 1

Nepal

139/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nepal batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Anil Sahcaught · Akhil Kumar · Harsh Thaker 4 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Akhil Kumar · b Harsh Thaker	41	30	4	3	136.67
Aasif Sheikhcaught and bowled · Saad Bin Zafar 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught and bowled · b Saad Bin Zafar	30	30	3	1	100.00
Rohit Kumarcaught · Ravinderpal Singh · Harsh Thaker 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ravinderpal Singh · b Harsh Thaker	4	6	0	0	66.67
Kushal Mallacaught · Nicholas Kirton · Parveen Kumar (2) 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nicholas Kirton · b Parveen Kumar (2)	4	12	0	0	33.33

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Kaleem Sana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	0	8.50	1
Dillon Heyliger0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	30	1	15.00	0
Akhil Kumar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	19	1	9.50	1
Harsh Thaker0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	2	4.25	0
Parveen Kumar (2)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	0
Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	1	3.25	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	19	27/0
3	6	33/0
4	7	40/0
5	6	46/0
6	10	56/0
7	4	60/0
8	6	66/0
9	4	70/0
10	4	74/1
11	3	77/2
12	3	80/3
13	2	82/3
14	2	84/4
15	4	88/4
16	6	94/4
17	9	103/4
18	13	116/5
19	12	128/5
20	11	139/6

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