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West Indies tour of Australia · 2023/24 · Men
25 Jan 2024 · Test
Brisbane Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kraigg Brathwaitecaught · Marnus Labuschagne · Cameron Green2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Cameron Green | 16 | 54 | 2 | 0 | 29.63 |
| Tagenarine Chanderpaulcaught · Alex Carey · Josh Hazlewood 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Josh Hazlewood | 4 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 15.38 |
| Kirk McKenzielbw · Nathan Lyon 6 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nathan Lyon | 41 | 50 | 6 | 0 | 82.00 |
| Alick Athanazecaught · Steve Smith · Nathan Lyon 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Nathan Lyon | 35 | 72 | 3 |
| 0 |
| 48.61 |
| Kavem Hodgerun out · Travis Head · Nathan Lyon 4 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Travis Head | 29 | 74 | 4 | 0 | 39.19 |
|---|
| Justin Greavescaught · Alex Carey · Josh Hazlewood 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Josh Hazlewood | 33 | 60 | 4 | 0 | 55.00 |
|---|
 Joshua Da Silvacaught · Cameron Green · Mitchell Starc1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Cameron Green · b Mitchell Starc | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 87.50 |
|---|
| Kevin Sinclairnot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 14* | 59 | 3 | 0 | 23.73 |
|---|
| Alzarri Josephcaught · Steve Smith · Josh Hazlewood 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Josh Hazlewood | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Kemar Roachlbw · Nathan Lyon0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nathan Lyon | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 5.88 |
|---|
| Shamar Josephretired hurt · Mitchell Starc 0 fours · 0 sixes | retired hurt | 3* | 14 | 0 | 0 | 21.43 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 0 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc3 maidens · 0 wides · 3 no-balls | 14.3 | 3 | 45 | 1 | 3.10 | 0 | 3 |
 Josh Hazlewood5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 14.0 | 5 | 23 | 3 | 1.64 | 0 | 0 |
 Pat Cummins1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 12.0 | 1 | 39 | 0 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Cameron Green2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 37 | 1 | 3.70 | 0 | 0 |
 Nathan Lyon6 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 22.0 | 6 | 42 | 3 | 1.91 | 0 | 0 |
1-13 (Tagenarine Chanderpaul, 7.3) · 2-63 (Kraigg Brathwaite, 19.4) · 3-86 (Kirk McKenzie, 25.2) · 4-123 (Alick Athanaze, 41.2) · 5-148 (Kavem Hodge, 50.0) · 6-157 (Joshua Da Silva, 52.2) · 7-184 (Justin Greaves, 62.4) · 8-184 (Alzarri Joseph, 64.2) · 9-185 (Kemar Roach, 69.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 5/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 7/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 9/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 9/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 13/0 |
| 8 | 1 | 14/1 |
| 9 | 8 | 22/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 25/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 27/1 |
| 12 | 5 | 32/1 |
| 13 | 10 | 42/1 |
| 14 | 3 | 45/1 |
| 15 | 6 | 51/1 |
| 16 | 4 | 55/1 |
| 17 | 6 | 61/1 |
| 18 | 1 | 62/1 |
| 19 | 1 | 63/1 |
| 20 | 2 | 65/2 |
| 21 | 1 | 66/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 68/2 |
| 23 | 5 | 73/2 |
| 24 | 2 | 75/2 |
| 25 | 10 | 85/2 |
| 26 | 3 | 88/3 |
| 27 | 2 | 90/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 94/3 |
| 29 | 4 | 98/3 |
| 30 | 1 | 99/3 |
| 31 | 7 | 106/3 |
| 32 | 0 | 106/3 |
| 33 | 0 | 106/3 |
| 34 | 0 | 106/3 |
| 35 | 1 | 107/3 |
| 36 | 2 | 109/3 |
| 37 | 2 | 111/3 |
| 38 | 4 | 115/3 |
| 39 | 6 | 121/3 |
| 40 | 1 | 122/3 |
| 41 | 1 | 123/3 |
| 42 | 4 | 127/4 |
| 43 | 4 | 131/4 |
| 44 | 1 | 132/4 |
| 45 | 2 | 134/4 |
| 46 | 3 | 137/4 |
| 47 | 2 | 139/4 |
| 48 | 1 | 140/4 |
| 49 | 4 | 144/4 |
| 50 | 4 | 148/5 |
| 51 | 2 | 150/5 |
| 52 | 7 | 157/5 |
| 53 | 4 | 161/6 |
| 54 | 8 | 169/6 |
| 55 | 0 | 169/6 |
| 56 | 4 | 173/6 |
| 57 | 1 | 174/6 |
| 58 | 3 | 177/6 |
| 59 | 0 | 177/6 |
| 60 | 5 | 182/6 |
| 61 | 1 | 183/6 |
| 62 | 1 | 184/6 |
| 63 | 0 | 184/7 |
| 64 | 0 | 184/7 |
| 65 | 1 | 185/8 |
| 66 | 0 | 185/8 |
| 67 | 0 | 185/8 |
| 68 | 0 | 185/8 |
| 69 | 0 | 185/8 |
| 70 | 0 | 185/9 |
| 71 | 4 | 189/9 |
| 72 | 1 | 190/9 |
| 73 | 3 | 193/9 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kemar Roach: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kraigg Brathwaite: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joshua Da Silva: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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