**Boland Park, Paarl**
Photo: Jshecket
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2023/24 · Men

Sunrisers Eastern CapeversusPaarl Royals

2 Feb 2024 · T20

Boland Park, Paarl · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sunrisers Eastern Cape won by 44 runs

Sunrisers Eastern Cape20.0 overs208/4 Paarl Royals20.0 overs164/7 Boland Park, Paarl ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sunrisers Eastern Cape started on 48%; Sunrisers Eastern Cape batted first.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape’s chance of winning (%) · Paarl Royals is the rest

Sunrisers Eastern Cape's chances ranged from 35% to 100% during the match (Paarl Royals: 0% to 65%).

Biggest swings

2.4: WJ Lubbe to DJ Malan, DJ Malan out. Paarl Royals up from 55% to 65%.
17.2: OC McCoy to M Jansen, six by M Jansen. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 61% to 70%.
2nd inns 7.3: LA Dawson to JJ Roy, JJ Roy out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 70% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.