BangladeshversusWest Indies

31 Oct 2025 · T20

Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

West Indies won by 5 wickets

Bangladesh20.0 overs151/10 West Indies16.5 overs152/5 Chittagong Divisional Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

53%Bangladesh47%West Indies

Why

Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, West Indies won 6 and Bangladesh won 4
On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than West Indies (1,528 vs 1,517 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 53%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 61% during the match (West Indies: 39% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.5: Mahedi Hasan to A Athanaze, A Athanaze out. Bangladesh up from 43% to 56%.
2nd inns 5.4: Nasum Ahmed to BA King, BA King out. Bangladesh up from 35% to 48%.
2nd inns 7.3: Rishad Hossain to AA Jangoo, AA Jangoo out. Bangladesh up from 37% to 53%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh151/10 West Indies152/5

Innings 1

Bangladesh

151/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tanzid Hasancaught · Jason Holder · Romario Shepherd 9 fours · 4 sixes	caught · Jason Holder · b Romario Shepherd	89	62	9	4	143.55
Parvez Hossain Emoncaught · Gudakesh Motie · Roston Chase 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Gudakesh Motie · b Roston Chase	9	10	0	1	90.00
Litton Dascaught · Gudakesh Motie · Khary Pierre 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Gudakesh Motie · b Khary Pierre	6	9	1	0	66.67
Saif Hassancaught · Ackeem Auguste · Jason Holder 0 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Ackeem Auguste · b Jason Holder	23	22	0	2	104.55

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Jason Holder0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	2	8.00	1
Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	0
Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	3	9.00	2
Roston Chase0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	1	5.75	1
Khary Pierre0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	2	7.67	0
Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	7	15/0
3	7	22/0
4	6	28/1
5	5	33/1
6	7	40/1
7	3	43/1
8	2	45/2
9	10	55/2
10	12	67/2
11	12	79/2
12	11	90/2
13	4	94/2
14	5	99/2
15	10	109/3
16	9	118/4
17	8	126/5
18	7	133/6
19	9	142/7
20	9	151/10

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