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Photo: G patkar
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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
23 Feb 2026 · T20
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 48%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 41% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 59%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tadiwanashe Marumanicaught · Shimron Hetmyer · Matthew Forde 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shimron Hetmyer · b Matthew Forde | 14 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 175.00 |
| Brian Bennettbowled · Akeal Hosein 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Akeal Hosein | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Dion Myersbowled · Gudakesh Motie 3 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Gudakesh Motie | 28 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 186.67 |
| Ryan Burlcaught · Shimron Hetmyer · Akeal Hosein 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shimron Hetmyer · b Akeal Hosein | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Sikandar Razabowled · Gudakesh Motie2 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Gudakesh Motie |
| 27 |
| 20 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 135.00 |
| Tony Munyongacaught · Shamar Joseph · Gudakesh Motie 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shamar Joseph · b Gudakesh Motie | 14 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 87.50 |
|---|
| Tashinga Musekiwabowled · Gudakesh Motie 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Gudakesh Motie | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Brad Evanscaught · Akeal Hosein · Matthew Forde 2 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Akeal Hosein · b Matthew Forde | 43 | 21 | 2 | 5 | 204.76 |
|---|
| Graeme Cremercaught and bowled · Jason Holder 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Jason Holder | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Blessing Muzarabanicaught · Shamar Joseph · Akeal Hosein 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shamar Joseph · b Akeal Hosein | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Richard Ngaravanot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 7* | 6 | 0 | 1 | 116.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akeal Hosein1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 28 | 3 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Forde0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.4 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 7.36 | 3 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 28 | 4 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Shamar Joseph0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 11.67 | 1 | 0 |
 Jason Holder0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 8.33 | 1 | 0 |
1-20 (Tadiwanashe Marumani, 2.0) · 2-20 (Brian Bennett, 2.1) · 3-20 (Ryan Burl, 2.4) · 4-52 (Dion Myers, 6.4) · 5-94 (Sikandar Raza, 10.3) · 6-94 (Tashinga Musekiwa, 10.4) · 7-101 (Tony Munyonga, 12.2) · 8-102 (Graeme Cremer, 13.3) · 9-103 (Blessing Muzarabani, 14.3) · 10-147 (Brad Evans, 17.4)
Recorded target: 255 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 20/1 |
| 3 | 0 | 20/3 |
| 4 | 5 | 25/3 |
| 5 | 11 | 36/3 |
| 6 | 11 | 47/3 |
| 7 | 10 | 57/4 |
| 8 | 8 | 65/4 |
| 9 | 10 | 75/4 |
| 10 | 12 | 87/4 |
| 11 | 8 | 95/6 |
| 12 | 6 | 101/6 |
| 13 | 0 | 101/7 |
| 14 | 1 | 102/8 |
| 15 | 7 | 109/9 |
| 16 | 18 | 127/9 |
| 17 | 18 | 145/9 |
| 18 | 2 | 147/10 |
Jason Holder: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shimron Hetmyer: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
