Washington FreedomversusSan Francisco Unicorns

16 Jul 2026 · T20

Oakland Coliseum, Oakland · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Washington Freedom won by 7 runs

Washington Freedom20.0 overs238/6 San Francisco Unicorns20.0 overs231/6 Oakland Coliseum, Oakland ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Washington Freedom started on 54%; Washington Freedom batted first.

Washington Freedom’s chance of winning (%) · San Francisco Unicorns is the rest

Washington Freedom's chances ranged from 54% to 98% during the match (San Francisco Unicorns: 2% to 46%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 8.1: MJ Owen to SP Krishnamurthi, SP Krishnamurthi out. Washington Freedom up from 80% to 88%.
2nd inns 17.4: BJ Dwarshuis to XC Bartlett, six by XC Bartlett. San Francisco Unicorns up from 13% to 22%.
2nd inns 19.2: MJ Owen to MW Short, four by MW Short. San Francisco Unicorns up from 11% to 19%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Washington Freedom238/6 San Francisco Unicorns231/6

Innings 1