IrelandversusUnited Arab Emirates

31 Jan 2026 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Ireland won by 30 runs

Ireland20.0 overs170/7 United Arab Emirates20.0 overs140/8 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

United Arab Emirates more likely to win

30%Ireland70%United Arab Emirates

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, United Arab Emirates rate stronger than Ireland (1,554 vs 1,497 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, United Arab Emirates won 7 and Ireland won 3
United Arab Emirates are playing at home in the United Arab Emirates

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Ireland started on 27%; Ireland batted first.

Ireland’s chance of winning (%) · United Arab Emirates is the rest

Ireland's chances ranged from 13% to 100% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 0% to 87%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 8.3: GJ Delany to Muhammad Zohaib, Muhammad Zohaib out. Ireland up from 33% to 45%.
2nd inns 10.2: MJ Humphreys to A Sharafu, A Sharafu out. Ireland up from 42% to 55%.
2nd inns 12.5: GJ Delany to H Kaushik, H Kaushik out. Ireland up from 59% to 73%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Ireland170/7 United Arab Emirates140/8

Innings 1

Ireland

170/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Ireland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Paul Stirlingbowled · Muhammad Arfan 1 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Muhammad Arfan	14	11	1	1	127.27
Ross Adaircaught · Aryansh Sharma · Junaid Siddique 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Aryansh Sharma · b Junaid Siddique	10	4	2	0	250.00
Harry Tectorcaught · Waseem Muhammad · Haider Ali 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Waseem Muhammad · b Haider Ali	20	17	4	0	117.65
Lorcan Tuckercaught · H Kaushik · Muhammad Jawadullah 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · H Kaushik · b Muhammad Jawadullah	12	11	2	0	109.09

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Junaid Siddique0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	35	2	8.75	3	1
D Parashar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	22	0	11.00	1	0
Haider Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	2	7.50	0	0
Muhammad Arfan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	2	5.75	0	0
Muhammad Jawadullah0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	42	1	10.50	0	1
H Kaushik0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	15	0	7.50	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	11	11/1
2	10	21/1
3	9	30/1
4	9	39/1
5	3	42/2
6	7	49/3
7	5	54/3
8	13	67/3
9	7	74/4
10	13	87/4
11	3	90/4
12	8	98/5
13	1	99/6
14	4	103/7
15	2	105/7
16	7	112/7
17	13	125/7
18	20	145/7
19	11	156/7
20	14	170/7

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