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Photo: Krish Dulal
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Nepal Tri-Nation T20I Series · 2023/24 · Men
29 Feb 2024 · T20
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Namibia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Netherlands started on 37%; Netherlands batted first.
Netherlands's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Namibia: 0% to 72%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Levittcaught · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton · Jan Frylinck 11 fours · 10 sixes | caught · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton · b Jan Frylinck | 135 | 62 | 11 | 10 | 217.74 |
| Max O'Dowdcaught · Michael van Lingen · Ruben Trumpelmann 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Michael van Lingen · b Ruben Trumpelmann | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
| Sybrand Engelbrechtcaught · JJ Smit · Ben Shikongo 7 fours · 5 sixes | caught · JJ Smit · b Ben Shikongo | 75 | 40 | 7 | 5 | 187.50 |
| Scott Edwardscaught · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton · Ruben Trumpelmann 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton · b Ruben Trumpelmann | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Teja Nidamanururun out · Jan Frylinck, Zane Green, Ben Shikongo · Ben Shikongo 0 fours · 3 sixes | run out · Jan Frylinck, Zane Green, Ben Shikongo |
| 18 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| 600.00 |
| Wesley Barresinot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 2 | 1 | 0 | 250.00 |
|---|
| Aryan Duttnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruben Trumpelmann0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 46 | 2 | 11.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Ben Shikongo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Bernard Scholtz0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 14.33 | 2 | 0 |
| Jan Frylinck0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 57 | 1 | 14.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 10.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Peter-Daniel Blignaut0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 19.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-15 (Max O'Dowd, 2.5) · 2-208 (Michael Levitt, 17.2) · 3-219 (Scott Edwards, 18.3) · 4-241 (Sybrand Engelbrecht, 19.2) · 5-242 (Teja Nidamanuru, 19.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 19/1 |
| 5 | 17 | 36/1 |
| 6 | 11 | 47/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 52/1 |
| 8 | 12 | 64/1 |
| 9 | 23 | 87/1 |
| 10 | 17 | 104/1 |
| 11 | 13 | 117/1 |
| 12 | 6 | 123/1 |
| 13 | 15 | 138/1 |
| 14 | 20 | 158/1 |
| 15 | 14 | 172/1 |
| 16 | 9 | 181/1 |
| 17 | 26 | 207/1 |
| 18 | 10 | 217/2 |
| 19 | 20 | 237/3 |
| 20 | 10 | 247/5 |
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Malan Kruger: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Shikongo: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Timm van der Gugten: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
