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Photo: Krish Dulal
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Nepal Tri-Nation T20I Series · 2023/24 · Men
29 Feb 2024 · T20
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Namibia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Netherlands started on 37%; Netherlands batted first.
Netherlands's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Namibia: 0% to 72%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael van Lingencaught · Roelof van der Merwe · Aryan Dutt 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Roelof van der Merwe · b Aryan Dutt | 7 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 63.64 |
 Malan Krugerbowled · Vivian Kingma0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Vivian Kingma | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
| Jean-Pierre Kotzebowled · Sybrand Engelbrecht 3 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Sybrand Engelbrecht | 26 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 173.33 |
| JJ Smitcaught · Teja Nidamanuru · Fred Klaassen 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Teja Nidamanuru · b Fred Klaassen | 19 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 237.50 |
| Jan Frylinckbowled · Timm van der Gugten 3 fours · 2 sixes |
| 42 |
| 27 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 155.56 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eatoncaught · Scott Edwards · Timm van der Gugten 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Scott Edwards · b Timm van der Gugten | 11 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 157.14 |
|---|
| Ruben Trumpelmanncaught · Fred Klaassen · Roelof van der Merwe 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Fred Klaassen · b Roelof van der Merwe | 19 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 135.71 |
|---|
| Zane Greennot out 4 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 42* | 20 | 4 | 3 | 210.00 |
|---|
| Bernard Scholtznot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 10 | 0 | 0 | 70.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivian Kingma0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 6.50 | 5 | 0 |
| Fred Klaassen0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Aryan Dutt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 10.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Timm van der Gugten0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Sybrand Engelbrecht0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Roelof van der Merwe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-15 (Malan Kruger, 3.0) · 2-15 (Michael van Lingen, 3.1) · 3-40 (JJ Smit, 5.0) · 4-66 (Jean-Pierre Kotze, 8.0) · 5-98 (Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton, 10.4) · 6-136 (Ruben Trumpelmann, 14.4) · 7-138 (Jan Frylinck, 15.2)
Recorded target: 248 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 11 | 26/2 |
| 5 | 14 | 40/3 |
| 6 | 14 | 54/3 |
| 7 | 5 | 59/3 |
| 8 | 7 | 66/4 |
| 9 | 11 | 77/4 |
| 10 | 13 | 90/4 |
| 11 | 8 | 98/5 |
| 12 | 7 | 105/5 |
| 13 | 9 | 114/5 |
| 14 | 14 | 128/5 |
| 15 | 9 | 137/6 |
| 16 | 2 | 139/7 |
| 17 | 3 | 142/7 |
| 18 | 12 | 154/7 |
| 19 | 23 | 177/7 |
| 20 | 11 | 188/7 |
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Malan Kruger: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Shikongo: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Timm van der Gugten: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
