Central SparksversusThe Blaze

22 Jun 2024 · T20

The County Ground, Derby · Venue photograph

Recorded result

The Blaze won by 5 wickets

Central Sparks20.0 overs140/9 The Blaze18.0 overs142/5 The County Ground, Derby ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Sparks started on 38%; Central Sparks batted first.

Central Sparks’s chance of winning (%) · The Blaze is the rest

Central Sparks's chances ranged from 1% to 62% during the match (The Blaze: 38% to 99%).

Biggest swings

11.2: J Groves to KL George, KL George out. The Blaze up from 50% to 60%.
2nd inns 2.4: HL Baker to M Kelly, M Kelly out. Central Sparks up from 37% to 47%.
2nd inns 14.6: G Potts to H Graham, six by H Graham. The Blaze up from 73% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: The Blaze chose to field
Player of the match: Kathryn Bryce
match referees: H Pack
umpires: WRP Fernando, S Widdup

Match history & source

On 22 Jun 2024, Central Sparks played The Blaze at The County Ground, Derby. Recorded result: The Blaze won by 5 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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