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African Games · 2023/24 · Men
18 Mar 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Uganda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Uganda started on 94%; Uganda batted first.
Uganda's chances ranged from 94% to 100% during the match (Ghana: 0% to 6%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RG Mukasacaught · Michael Aboagye · Obed Agbomadzie 5 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Michael Aboagye · b Obed Agbomadzie | 69 | 51 | 5 | 3 | 135.29 |
| Simon Ssesazibowled · Obed Agbomadzie 9 fours · 4 sixes | bowled · b Obed Agbomadzie | 90 | 50 | 9 | 4 | 180.00 |
| Dinesh Nakranibowled · Obed Agbomadzie 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Obed Agbomadzie | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Kenneth Waiswacaught · Lee Nyarko · Obed Agbomadzie 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Lee Nyarko · b Obed Agbomadzie | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 114.29 |
| Robinson Obuyanot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 14* | 7 | 3 | 0 | 200.00 |
| caught · Lee Nyarko · b Obed Agbomadzie |
| 6 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 300.00 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 2 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kofi Bagabena0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 10.25 | 2 | 1 |
| Godfred Bakiweyem0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Lee Nyarko0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Richmond Baaleri0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 10.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Obed Agbomadzie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 5 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Aboagye0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 20.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Rexford Bakum0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-160 (Simon Ssesazi, 15.4) · 2-166 (Dinesh Nakrani, 17.1) · 3-167 (RG Mukasa, 17.3) · 4-188 (Kenneth Waiswa, 19.4) · 5-194 (AR Ramjani, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 12/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 11 | 29/0 |
| 5 | 11 | 40/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 45/0 |
| 7 | 15 | 60/0 |
| 8 | 9 | 69/0 |
| 9 | 18 | 87/0 |
| 10 | 4 | 91/0 |
| 11 | 8 | 99/0 |
| 12 | 12 | 111/0 |
| 13 | 20 | 131/0 |
| 14 | 18 | 149/0 |
| 15 | 7 | 156/0 |
| 16 | 4 | 160/1 |
| 17 | 6 | 166/1 |
| 18 | 2 | 168/3 |
| 19 | 14 | 182/3 |
| 20 | 12 | 194/5 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.