African Games · 2023/24 · Men

UgandaversusGhana

18 Mar 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Uganda won by 121 runs

Uganda20.0 overs194/5 Ghana16.0 overs73/10 Achimota Senior Secondary School B Field, Accra ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Uganda more likely to win

94%Uganda6%Ghana

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Uganda rate stronger than Ghana (1,772 vs 1,348 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Uganda won 3 and Ghana won 0
Ghana are playing at home in Ghana

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Uganda started on 94%; Uganda batted first.

Uganda’s chance of winning (%) · Ghana is the rest

Uganda's chances ranged from 94% to 100% during the match (Ghana: 0% to 6%).

Biggest swings

19.6: OH Agbomadzie to AR Ramjani, AR Ramjani out. Ghana up from 4% to 6%.
2nd inns 0.4: AR Ramjani to JK Vifah, JK Vifah out. Uganda up from 95% to 97%.
2nd inns 2.1: AR Ramjani to R Baaleri, OH Agbomadzie out. Uganda up from 96% to 98%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Uganda194/5 Ghana73/10

Innings 2

Ghana

73/1016.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Ghana batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Richmond Baalerilbw · Kenneth Waiswa 1 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b Kenneth Waiswa	27	35	1	1	77.14
James Vifahcaught · RG Mukasa · AR Ramjani 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · RG Mukasa · b AR Ramjani	0	1	0	0	0.00
Obed Agbomadzierun out · CN Kakuru · AR Ramjani 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · CN Kakuru	6	7	1	0	85.71
Rexford Bakumcaught · Dinesh Nakrani · Henry Ssenyondo 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Dinesh Nakrani · b Henry Ssenyondo	20	24	2	1	83.33
Devender Singhstumped · CN Kakuru · Henry Ssenyondo 0 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · CN Kakuru · b Henry Ssenyondo	0	2	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
AR Ramjani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	6	2	1.50	0	0
Cosmas Kyewuta0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	17	0	8.50	3	0
Dinesh Nakrani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	17	0	5.67	0	0
Juma Miyagi0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	10	3	3.33	1	1
Henry Ssenyondo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	18	2	6.00	0	0
Kenneth Waiswa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	2	1	2.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	7	8/1
3	2	10/2
4	11	21/2
5	3	24/2
6	1	25/2
7	5	30/2
8	6	36/2
9	5	41/2
10	9	50/2
11	8	58/4
12	6	64/4
13	1	65/5
14	3	68/6
15	2	70/7
16	3	73/10

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.