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Photo: Aravind Sivaraj
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Ireland vs South Africa · 2024/25 · Men
27 Sept 2024 · T20
Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 22%; Ireland batted first.
Ireland's chances ranged from 0% to 54% during the match (South Africa: 46% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ryan Rickeltoncaught · Curtis Campher · Mark Adair3 fours · 6 sixes | caught · Curtis Campher · b Mark Adair | 76 | 48 | 3 | 6 | 158.33 |
 Reeza Hendrickslbw · Craig Young5 fours · 3 sixes | lbw · b Craig Young | 51 | 33 | 5 | 3 | 154.55 |
| Matthew Breetzkenot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 19* | 14 | 2 | 1 | 135.71 |
 Aiden Markramnot out3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 17* | 12 | 3 | 0 | 141.67 |
| Extras |
| byes: 1 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 6 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 |
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Humphreys0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Adair0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.4 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 8.45 | 1 | 0 |
| Craig Young0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 8.33 | 3 | 0 |
 Fionn Hand0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 12.67 | 0 | 1 |
| Ben White0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 11.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Harry Tector0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13.00 | 2 | 0 |
1-136 (Reeza Hendricks, 13.0) · 2-138 (Ryan Rickelton, 13.5)
Recorded target: 172 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 22/0 |
| 4 | 14 | 36/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 44/0 |
| 6 | 14 | 58/0 |
| 7 | 10 | 68/0 |
| 8 | 10 | 78/0 |
| 9 | 6 | 84/0 |
| 10 | 13 | 97/0 |
| 11 | 18 | 115/0 |
| 12 | 13 | 128/0 |
| 13 | 8 | 136/1 |
| 14 | 3 | 139/2 |
| 15 | 10 | 149/2 |
| 16 | 7 | 156/2 |
| 17 | 12 | 168/2 |
| 18 | 6 | 174/2 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Fionn Hand: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Reeza Hendricks: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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