South AfricaversusSri Lanka

30 Mar 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 7 wickets

South Africa20.0 overs137/8 Sri Lanka18.5 overs138/3 North West Cricket Stadium, Potchefstroom ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

South Africa more likely to win

63%South Africa37%Sri Lanka

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 7 and Sri Lanka won 3
South Africa are playing at home in South Africa
On results in T20 internationals so far, South Africa rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,543 vs 1,541 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 61%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 83% during the match (Sri Lanka: 17% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.6: TS Sekhukhune to AC Jayangani, AC Jayangani out. South Africa up from 46% to 58%.
2nd inns 9.5: CL Tryon to H Madavi, H Madavi out. South Africa up from 44% to 57%.
2nd inns 15.6: CL Tryon to RMVD Gunaratne, 1 run to RMVD Gunaratne. Sri Lanka up from 67% to 78%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa137/8 Sri Lanka138/3

Innings 1

South Africa

137/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Anne Boschlbw · Kavisha Dilhari 4 fours · 2 sixes	lbw · b Kavisha Dilhari	50	32	4	2	156.25
Tazmin Britsbowled · Achini Kulasuriya 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Achini Kulasuriya	7	8	1	0	87.50
Marizanne Kappcaught · Inoka Ranaweera · Inoshi Priyadharshani 5 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Inoka Ranaweera · b Inoshi Priyadharshani	44	36	5	2	122.22
Suné Luusrun out · Kavisha Dilhari, Nilakshi de Silva · Kavisha Dilhari 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Kavisha Dilhari, Nilakshi de Silva	3	5	0	0	60.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Udeshika Prabodhani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	24	0	6.00	0
Inoshi Priyadharshani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	21	1	7.00	0
Achini Kulasuriya1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	26	2	6.50	0
Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	18	1	4.50	1
Inoka Ranaweera0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	25	0	12.50	0
Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	22	1	7.33	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	12	18/0
3	8	26/0
4	0	26/1
5	9	35/1
6	13	48/1
7	3	51/1
8	15	66/1
9	1	67/1
10	17	84/2
11	10	94/2
12	4	98/2
13	2	100/3
14	6	106/4
15	3	109/4
16	7	116/5
17	2	118/7
18	6	124/7
19	6	130/7
20	7	137/8

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