IndiaversusSri Lanka

9 Oct 2024 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 82 runs

India20.0 overs172/3 Sri Lanka19.5 overs90/10 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

63%India37%Sri Lanka

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 8 and Sri Lanka won 2
On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,653 vs 1,642 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 62%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

India's chances ranged from 62% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 38%).

Biggest swings

2.2: KDU Prabodhani to Shafali Verma, four by Shafali Verma. India up from 66% to 69%.
3.4: WK Dilhari to Shafali Verma, four by Shafali Verma. India up from 68% to 70%.
6.6: I Ranaweera to S Mandhana, six by S Mandhana. India up from 76% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India172/3 Sri Lanka90/10

Innings 2

Sri Lanka

90/1019.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Vishmi Gunaratnecaught · RP Yadav · Renuka Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · RP Yadav · b Renuka Singh	0	2	0	0	0.00
Chamari Atapattucaught · Deepti Sharma · Shreyanka Patil 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Deepti Sharma · b Shreyanka Patil	1	3	0	0	33.33
Harshitha Madavicaught · Richa Ghosh · Renuka Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Richa Ghosh · b Renuka Singh	3	7	0	0	42.86
Kavisha Dilharicaught · Renuka Singh · Arundhati Reddy 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Renuka Singh

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls
Renuka Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	2	4.00
Shreyanka Patil0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	1	3.75
Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	16	1	4.17
Arundhati Reddy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	3	4.75
Asha Sobhana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	3	4.75

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	2	5/2
3	1	6/3
4	9	15/3
5	6	21/3
6	7	28/3
7	12	40/3
8	3	43/4
9	3	46/4
10	8	54/4
11	2	56/4
12	2	58/6
13	3	61/7
14	3	64/7
15	5	69/8
16	3	72/8
17	10	82/8
18	4	86/8
19	2	88/9
20	2	90/10

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