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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier Group C · 2024 · Men
27 Aug 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Finland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Finland started on 65%; Finland batted first.
Finland's chances ranged from 66% to 100% during the match (Bulgaria: 0% to 34%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isa Zaroocaught · Ghulam Abbas Butt · NM Salonen 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ghulam Abbas Butt · b NM Salonen | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
| Zeerak Chughtaistumped · Jordan O'Brien · Ghulam Abbas Butt 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Jordan O'Brien · b Ghulam Abbas Butt | 15 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
| Firas Hussainbowled · Raaz Mohammad 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Raaz Mohammad | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| M Gogevlbw · Raaz Mohammad 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Raaz Mohammad | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 36.36 |
| Danyal Rajacaught · Ziaur Rehman · Atif Rasheed 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ziaur Rehman · b Atif Rasheed | 14 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 82.35 |
| caught · Jordan O'Brien · b Parveen Kumar |
| 1 |
| 23 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 4.35 |
| D Nikolovcaught · VS Padhaal · Atif Rasheed 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · VS Padhaal · b Atif Rasheed | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Ali Rasoolcaught · Jordan O'Brien · Atif Rasheed 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jordan O'Brien · b Atif Rasheed | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Gagandeep Singh (3)caught · NM Salonen · Atif Rasheed 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · NM Salonen · b Atif Rasheed | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Huzaif Yousufnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 10 | 1 | 0 | 70.00 |
|---|
| P Mishranot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 14 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM Salonen0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Raaz Mohammad0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 4.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Ghulam Abbas Butt2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 0 |
| MB Tambe0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Atif Rasheed1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 3.25 | 0 | 1 |
| Parveen Kumar0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 3 | 0 |
1-6 (Isa Zaroo, 0.5) · 2-8 (Firas Hussain, 1.4) · 3-25 (M Gogev, 5.4) · 4-37 (Zeerak Chughtai, 8.2) · 5-45 (Danyal Raja, 11.3) · 6-48 (Omar Rassol, 14.0) · 7-48 (D Nikolov, 14.1) · 8-57 (Gagandeep Singh (3), 15.0) · 9-61 (Ali Rasool, 16.2)
Recorded target: 200 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/1 |
| 2 | 2 | 8/2 |
| 3 | 3 | 11/2 |
| 4 | 9 | 20/2 |
| 5 | 4 | 24/2 |
| 6 | 2 | 26/3 |
| 7 | 2 | 28/3 |
| 8 | 9 | 37/3 |
| 9 | 0 | 37/4 |
| 10 | 5 | 42/4 |
| 11 | 2 | 44/4 |
| 12 | 3 | 47/5 |
| 13 | 0 | 47/5 |
| 14 | 1 | 48/6 |
| 15 | 9 | 57/8 |
| 16 | 4 | 61/8 |
| 17 | 0 | 61/9 |
| 18 | 3 | 64/9 |
| 19 | 1 | 65/9 |
| 20 | 9 | 74/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.