Perth ScorchersversusBrisbane Heat

26 Dec 2024 · T20

Perth Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Perth Scorchers won by 33 runs

Perth Scorchers20.0 overs165/6 Brisbane Heat19.4 overs132/10 Perth Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Perth Scorchers started on 49%; Perth Scorchers batted first.

Perth Scorchers’s chance of winning (%) · Brisbane Heat is the rest

Perth Scorchers's chances ranged from 34% to 100% during the match (Brisbane Heat: 0% to 66%).

Biggest swings

0.5: SH Johnson to FH Allen, FH Allen out. Brisbane Heat up from 54% to 66%.
2nd inns 8.5: AC Agar to NA McSweeney, NA McSweeney out. Perth Scorchers up from 67% to 81%.
2nd inns 10.4: AJ Tye to MT Renshaw, MT Renshaw out. Perth Scorchers up from 78% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Brisbane Heat chose to field
Player of the match: Nick Hobson
match referees: Kent Hannam
reserve umpires: Ashlee Gibbons
tv umpires: SA Lightbody
umpires: BC Treloar, DM Koch

Match history & source

On 26 Dec 2024, Perth Scorchers played Brisbane Heat at Perth Stadium. Recorded result: Perth Scorchers won by 33 runs.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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