IndiaversusSouth Africa

29 Jun 2024 · T20

Kensington Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 7 runs

India20.0 overs176/7 South Africa20.0 overs169/8 Kensington Oval ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

63%India37%South Africa

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than South Africa (1,750 vs 1,658 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 64%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

India's chances ranged from 6% to 96% during the match (South Africa: 4% to 94%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 12.3: Arshdeep Singh to Q de Kock, Q de Kock out. India up from 52% to 67%.
2nd inns 13.6: Kuldeep Yadav to DA Miller, six by DA Miller. South Africa up from 38% to 55%.
2nd inns 17.4: JJ Bumrah to M Jansen, M Jansen out. India up from 30% to 48%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India176/7 South Africa169/8

Innings 1

India

176/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Rohit Sharmacaught · Heinrich Klaasen · Keshav Maharaj 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Heinrich Klaasen · b Keshav Maharaj	9	5	2	0	180.00
Virat Kohlicaught · Kagiso Rabada · Marco Jansen 6 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Kagiso Rabada · b Marco Jansen	76	59	6	2	128.81
Rishabh Pantcaught · Quinton de Kock · Keshav Maharaj 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Quinton de Kock · b Keshav Maharaj	0	2	0	0	0.00
Suryakumar Yadav

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Marco Jansen0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	49	1	12.25	1	1
Keshav Maharaj0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	2	7.67	0	0
Kagiso Rabada0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	1	9.00	2	0
Aiden Markram0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	16	0	8.00	0	0
Anrich Nortje0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	2	6.50	2	0
Tabraiz Shamsi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	26	0	8.67	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	15	15/0
2	8	23/2
3	3	26/2
4	6	32/2
5	7	39/3
6	6	45/3
7	4	49/3
8	10	59/3
9	9	68/3
10	7	75/3
11	7	82/3
12	11	93/3
13	5	98/3
14	10	108/4
15	10	118/4
16	8	126/4
17	8	134/4
18	16	150/4
19	17	167/5
20	9	176/7

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