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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2024 · Men
29 Jun 2024 · T20
Kensington Oval · Venue photographIndia more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 64%; India batted first.
India's chances ranged from 6% to 96% during the match (South Africa: 4% to 94%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Reeza Hendricksbowled · Jasprit Bumrah1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jasprit Bumrah | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
 Quinton de Kockcaught · Kuldeep Yadav · Arshdeep Singh4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kuldeep Yadav · b Arshdeep Singh | 39 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 125.81 |
 Aiden Markramcaught · Rishabh Pant · Arshdeep Singh1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rishabh Pant · b Arshdeep Singh | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Tristan Stubbsbowled · Axar Patel 3 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Axar Patel | 31 |
| 21 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 147.62 |
| Heinrich Klaasencaught · Rishabh Pant · Hardik Pandya 2 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Rishabh Pant · b Hardik Pandya | 52 | 27 | 2 | 5 | 192.59 |
|---|
 David Millercaught · Suryakumar Yadav · Hardik Pandya1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Suryakumar Yadav · b Hardik Pandya | 21 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 123.53 |
|---|
 Marco Jansenbowled · Jasprit Bumrah0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jasprit Bumrah | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Keshav Maharajnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
 Kagiso Rabadacaught · Suryakumar Yadav · Hardik Pandya1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Suryakumar Yadav · b Hardik Pandya | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Anrich Nortjenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Jasprit Bumrah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Axar Patel0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 12.25 | 2 | 0 |
 Kuldeep Yadav0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 11.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Hardik Pandya0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 3 | 6.67 | 1 | 1 |
 Ravindra Jadeja0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-7 (Reeza Hendricks, 1.3) · 2-12 (Aiden Markram, 2.3) · 3-70 (Tristan Stubbs, 8.5) · 4-106 (Quinton de Kock, 12.3) · 5-151 (Heinrich Klaasen, 16.1) · 6-156 (Marco Jansen, 17.4) · 7-161 (David Miller, 19.1) · 8-168 (Kagiso Rabada, 19.5)
Recorded target: 177 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 11/1 |
| 3 | 3 | 14/2 |
| 4 | 8 | 22/2 |
| 5 | 10 | 32/2 |
| 6 | 10 | 42/2 |
| 7 | 7 | 49/2 |
| 8 | 13 | 62/2 |
| 9 | 9 | 71/3 |
| 10 | 10 | 81/3 |
| 11 | 12 | 93/3 |
| 12 | 8 | 101/3 |
| 13 | 8 | 109/4 |
| 14 | 14 | 123/4 |
| 15 | 24 | 147/4 |
| 16 | 4 | 151/4 |
| 17 | 4 | 155/5 |
| 18 | 2 | 157/6 |
| 19 | 4 | 161/6 |
| 20 | 8 | 169/8 |
Jasprit Bumrah: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Hardik Pandya: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
David Miller: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Suryakumar Yadav: Kolkata Knight Riders - Official · CC BY 3.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Rishabh Pant: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shivam Dube: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Arshdeep Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Reeza Hendricks: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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