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Ireland tour of Namibia · 2026/27 · Men
22 Oct 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Namibia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 42%; Ireland batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael van Lingencaught · Lorcan Tucker · Jai Moondra 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lorcan Tucker · b Jai Moondra | 23 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 104.55 |
| Louren Steenkampcaught · George Dockrell · Gavin Hoey 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · George Dockrell · b Gavin Hoey | 26 | 38 | 4 | 1 | 68.42 |
| Jan Frylinckcaught · Lorcan Tucker · Gavin Hoey 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lorcan Tucker · b Gavin Hoey | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 150.00 |
| Gerhard Erasmuslbw · George Dockrell 2 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b George Dockrell | 22 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 70.97 |
| Zane Greenbowled · Curtis Campher 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Curtis Campher | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
Ireland's chances ranged from 18% to 99% during the match (Namibia: 1% to 82%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| run out · Harry Tector, Lorcan Tucker |
| 9 |
| 21 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 42.86 |
| JJ Smitcaught · Curtis Campher · George Dockrell 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Curtis Campher · b George Dockrell | 9 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 52.94 |
|---|
| Ruben Trumpelmannbowled · L McCarthy 4 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b L McCarthy | 50 | 43 | 4 | 3 | 116.28 |
|---|
| W Smithcaught · Andrew McBrine · Gavin Hoey 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Andrew McBrine · b Gavin Hoey | 6 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 31.58 |
|---|
| Bernard Scholtzbowled · Jai Moondra 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jai Moondra | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Jack Brassellnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 18 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 3 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Moondra0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 3.38 | 2 | 0 |
| L McCarthy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.5 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 7.37 | 1 | 0 |
| Curtis Campher0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 4.40 | 1 | 0 |
| Gavin Hoey0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 29 | 3 | 3.22 | 0 | 0 |
 Andrew McBrine0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 4.17 | 0 | 0 |
 George Dockrell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-48 (Michael van Lingen, 8.3) · 2-55 (Louren Steenkamp, 10.1) · 3-68 (Jan Frylinck, 12.2) · 4-74 (Zane Green, 14.0) · 5-93 (Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton, 19.4) · 6-105 (Gerhard Erasmus, 22.4) · 7-110 (JJ Smit, 24.1) · 8-147 (W Smith, 30.5) · 9-156 (Bernard Scholtz, 33.1) · 10-174 (Ruben Trumpelmann, 37.5)
Recorded target: 230 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 12 | 24/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 28/0 |
| 6 | 8 | 36/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 41/0 |
| 8 | 7 | 48/0 |
| 9 | 2 | 50/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 55/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 60/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 64/2 |
| 13 | 5 | 69/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 74/4 |
| 15 | 2 | 76/4 |
| 16 | 5 | 81/4 |
| 17 | 5 | 86/4 |
| 18 | 3 | 89/4 |
| 19 | 1 | 90/4 |
| 20 | 4 | 94/5 |
| 21 | 7 | 101/5 |
| 22 | 3 | 104/5 |
| 23 | 1 | 105/6 |
| 24 | 5 | 110/6 |
| 25 | 2 | 112/7 |
| 26 | 5 | 117/7 |
| 27 | 6 | 123/7 |
| 28 | 7 | 130/7 |
| 29 | 13 | 143/7 |
| 30 | 3 | 146/7 |
| 31 | 1 | 147/8 |
| 32 | 7 | 154/8 |
| 33 | 2 | 156/8 |
| 34 | 2 | 158/9 |
| 35 | 2 | 160/9 |
| 36 | 2 | 162/9 |
| 37 | 2 | 164/9 |
| 38 | 10 | 174/10 |
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew Balbirnie: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew McBrine: AssociateAffiliate · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
