MalaysiaversusHong Kong

7 Sept 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Malaysia won by 3 runs

Malaysia18.4 overs124/10 Hong Kong20.0 overs121/9 Bayuemas Oval, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Hong Kong more likely to win

40%Malaysia60%Hong Kong

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Hong Kong rate stronger than Malaysia (1,547 vs 1,468 on our results rating)
Malaysia are playing at home in Malaysia
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Hong Kong won 6 and Malaysia won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Malaysia started on 37%; Malaysia batted first.

Malaysia’s chance of winning (%) · Hong Kong is the rest

Malaysia's chances ranged from 9% to 78% during the match (Hong Kong: 22% to 91%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.1: Rizwan Haider to Yasim Murtaza, six by Yasim Murtaza. Hong Kong up from 29% to 59%.
2nd inns 18.2: Rizwan Haider to Yasim Murtaza, Yasim Murtaza out. Malaysia up from 41% to 63%.
2nd inns 19.6: Syed Aziz to Anas Khan, Anas Khan out. Malaysia up from 68% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Malaysia124/10 Hong Kong121/9

Innings 2

Hong Kong

121/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Hong Kong batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
James Atkinsonbowled · Vijay Unni 2 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Vijay Unni	20	15	2	1	133.33
Zeeshan Alicaught · Virandeep Singh · Vijay Unni 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Virandeep Singh · b Vijay Unni	25	27	1	1	92.59
Nizakat Khancaught · Ahmed Faiz · Syed Aziz 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Ahmed Faiz · b Syed Aziz	34	35	1	1	97.14
Babar Hayatcaught · Ainool Hafizs · Syed Aziz 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ainool Hafizs · b Syed Aziz	8	19	0	0	42.11
Anshuman Rathcaught · Sharvin Muniandy · Rizwan Haider 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sharvin Muniandy · b Rizwan Haider	4	6	1	0	66.67

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Rizwan Haider0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	33	2	8.25	0	1
Pavandeep Singh0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	0	6.25	2	0
Vijay Unni0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	2	4.50	3	0
Virandeep Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	0	5.25	1	0
Muhammad Amir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	9	0	9.00	0	0
Syed Aziz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	9	4	3.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/0
2	3	13/0
3	9	22/0
4	9	31/0
5	3	34/1
6	9	43/1
7	9	52/1
8	9	61/1
9	5	66/1
10	7	73/2
11	4	77/2
12	3	80/2
13	4	84/2
14	4	88/2
15	4	92/2
16	2	94/3
17	8	102/4
18	2	104/6
19	11	115/8
20	6	121/9

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.