SamoaversusFiji

21 Aug 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Samoa won by 73 runs

Samoa20.0 overs183/5 Fiji15.3 overs110/10 Faleata Oval No 2, Apia ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

51%Samoa49%Fiji

Why

Samoa are playing at home in Samoa
In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Fiji won 3 and Samoa won 2
On results in T20 internationals so far, Fiji rate stronger than Samoa (1,329 vs 1,319 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Samoa started on 48%; Samoa batted first.

Samoa’s chance of winning (%) · Fiji is the rest

Samoa's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Fiji: 0% to 56%).

Biggest swings

4.3: S Tabuisulu to CK Jasmat, CK Jasmat out. Fiji up from 46% to 54%.
2nd inns 9.3: DE Burgess to M Beitaki, M Beitaki out. Samoa up from 73% to 82%.
2nd inns 12.4: D Visser to A Sokovagone, A Sokovagone out. Samoa up from 84% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Samoa183/5 Fiji110/10

Innings 2

Fiji

110/1015.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Fiji batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Metuisela Beitakirun out · S Cotter, A Ilaoa · DE Burgess 1 fours · 0 sixes	run out · S Cotter, A Ilaoa	19	27	1	0	70.37
DR Tawakecaught · A Ilaoa · SM Nash 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · A Ilaoa · b SM Nash	14	11	1	0	127.27
Peni Vuniwaqacaught · Noah Mead · Darius Visser 3 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Noah Mead · b Darius Visser	39	23	3	3	169.57
A Sokovagonecaught · F Suluoto · Darius Visser 0 fours · 3 sixes	caught · F Suluoto · b Darius Visser	23	10	0	3	230.00
TS Waqavakatogacaught · S Cotter · SF Tiai 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · S Cotter · b SF Tiai	2	5	0	0	40.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
SM Nash0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	17	1	5.67	1
Noah Mead0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	19	0	6.33	1
D Finau0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	7	0	7.00	1
SF Tiai0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	27	5	7.71	1
Darius Visser0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	3	7.75	3
DE Burgess0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	8	0	8.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	5	7/0
3	6	13/0
4	5	18/0
5	9	27/1
6	10	37/1
7	7	44/1
8	14	58/1
9	9	67/1
10	8	75/2
11	8	83/3
12	10	93/4
13	12	105/5
14	1	106/8
15	2	108/9
16	2	110/10

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