Mdina Cup · 2024 · Men

BelgiumversusMalta

10 May 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Belgium won by 16 runs

Belgium20.0 overs142/9 Malta20.0 overs126/9 Dreux Sport Cricket Club ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Belgium more likely to win

68%Belgium32%Malta

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Belgium rate stronger than Malta (1,449 vs 1,343 on our results rating)
In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Belgium won 3 and Malta won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Belgium started on 68%; Belgium batted first.

Belgium’s chance of winning (%) · Malta is the rest

Belgium's chances ranged from 24% to 100% during the match (Malta: 0% to 76%).

Biggest swings

1.6: Fanyan Mughal to A Raza, A Raza out. Malta up from 46% to 67%.
2nd inns 12.4: D Dewald to VP Thamotharam, VP Thamotharam out. Belgium up from 40% to 62%.
2nd inns 16.5: F Khaliq to B George, B George out. Belgium up from 56% to 77%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Belgium142/9 Malta126/9

Innings 2

Malta

126/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Malta batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Zeeshan Khancaught · Muhammad Muneeb · Sajad Ahmadzai 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Muhammad Muneeb · b Sajad Ahmadzai	3	4	0	0	75.00
SSM Stanislauscaught and bowled · Sheraz Sheikh 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Sheraz Sheikh	28	30	4	0	93.33
Bikram Aroracaught · A Raza · Khalid Ahmadi 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · A Raza · b Khalid Ahmadi	4	4	1	0	100.00
Jaspal Singhbowled · Sheraz Sheikh 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sheraz Sheikh	19	19	1	0	100.00
VP Thamotharamcaught · Sheraz Sheikh · D Dewald 2 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Sheraz Sheikh · b D Dewald	23	15	2	2	153.33

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Sajad Ahmadzai0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	34	1	8.50	1	0
Khalid Ahmadi0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	27	3	6.75	3	1
F Khaliq0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	13	1	3.25	1	0
D Dewald1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	27	1	6.75	1	0
Sheraz Sheikh0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	19	2	4.75	2	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/1
2	11	16/2
3	11	27/2
4	2	29/2
5	10	39/2
6	6	45/2
7	8	53/2
8	4	57/3
9	1	58/3
10	8	66/3
11	8	74/3
12	2	76/4
13	11	87/5
14	5	92/5
15	9	101/5
16	11	112/5
17	2	114/7
18	4	118/8
19	3	121/8
20	5	126/9

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.