New ZealandversusEngland

24 Mar 2024 · T20

Saxton Oval, Nelson · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 3 runs

New Zealand20.0 overs155/3 England20.0 overs152/8 Saxton Oval, Nelson ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

22%New Zealand78%England

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than New Zealand (1,715 vs 1,541 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 8 and New Zealand won 2
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 21%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · England is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 4% to 62% during the match (England: 38% to 96%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 19.1: SW Bates to HJ Armitage, HJ Armitage out. New Zealand up from 36% to 55%.
2nd inns 19.5: SW Bates to CE Dean, 0 runs to CE Dean. New Zealand up from 46% to 62%.
2nd inns 19.6: SW Bates to CE Dean, CE Dean out. New Zealand up from 62% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand155/3 England152/8

Innings 2

England

152/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tammy Beaumontcaught · Sophie Devine · Hannah Rowe 5 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sophie Devine · b Hannah Rowe	37	34	5	0	108.82
Sophia Dunkleyrun out · Rosemary Mair · Hannah Rowe 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Rosemary Mair	0	3	0	0	0.00
Maia Bouchiercaught · Hannah Rowe · Sophie Devine 11 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Hannah Rowe · b Sophie Devine	71	47	11	1	151.06
Heather Knightrun out · Amelia Kerr · Rosemary Mair 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Amelia Kerr	10

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Rosemary Mair0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	0	9.75	0	0
Hannah Rowe0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	20	1	10.00	1	1
Fran Jonas0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	0	4.50	1	0
Lea Tahuhu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	18	0	9.00	1	0
Sophie Devine0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	2	7.67	3	0
Amelia Kerr0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	1	7.25	5	0
Suzie Bates0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	4	2	4.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	12	13/1
3	3	16/1
4	11	27/1
5	18	45/1
6	15	60/1
7	4	64/1
8	3	67/1
9	8	75/1
10	12	87/1
11	7	94/1
12	8	102/2
13	13	115/2
14	8	123/2
15	3	126/2
16	5	131/3
17	8	139/4
18	6	145/5
19	3	148/6
20	4	152/8

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