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Japan Twenty20 Tri-Series · 2025 · Men
8 May 2025 · T20
Sano International Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Japan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Japan started on 83%; Japan batted first.
Japan's chances ranged from 26% to 100% during the match (Thailand: 0% to 74%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L Yamamoto-Lakecaught · Chaloemwong Chatphaisan · Jandre Coetzee 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chaloemwong Chatphaisan · b Jandre Coetzee | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Kendel Kadowaki-Flemingbowled · Nopphon Senamontree 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nopphon Senamontree | 13 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 81.25 |
| Charlie Hara-Hinzecaught · Austin Lazarus · S Desungnoen 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Austin Lazarus · b S Desungnoen | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 107.69 |
| S Ravichandrancaught · Chaloemwong Chatphaisan · Nopphon Senamontree 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Chaloemwong Chatphaisan · b Nopphon Senamontree | 24 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 88.89 |
| A Patmorecaught · Akshaykumar Yadav · Mukesh Thakur 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Akshaykumar Yadav · b Mukesh Thakur |
| 20 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 80.00 |
| B Ito-Daviscaught · Chaloemwong Chatphaisan · Nopphon Senamontree 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chaloemwong Chatphaisan · b Nopphon Senamontree | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| K Takahashibowled · S Desungnoen 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b S Desungnoen | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Ibrahim Takahashicaught · Austin Lazarus · Sarawut Maliwan 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Austin Lazarus · b Sarawut Maliwan | 12 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 133.33 |
|---|
| K Kato-Staffordcaught and bowled · Jandre Coetzee 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Jandre Coetzee | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 36.36 |
|---|
| S Sugaya-Slaternot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 9* | 8 | 1 | 0 | 112.50 |
|---|
| Abdul Samad (2)not out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jandre Coetzee0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Mukesh Thakur0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| S Desungnoen0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 8.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Nopphon Senamontree0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
| N Salekar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Sarawut Maliwan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 3.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-11 (L Yamamoto-Lake, 2.3) · 2-34 (Charlie Hara-Hinze, 6.0) · 3-34 (Kendel Kadowaki-Fleming, 6.1) · 4-68 (S Ravichandran, 12.1) · 5-70 (B Ito-Davis, 12.5) · 6-74 (K Takahashi, 13.3) · 7-91 (Ibrahim Takahashi, 16.1) · 8-93 (A Patmore, 17.1) · 9-101 (K Kato-Stafford, 19.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 11/1 |
| 4 | 10 | 21/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 28/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 34/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 35/3 |
| 8 | 6 | 41/3 |
| 9 | 5 | 46/3 |
| 10 | 7 | 53/3 |
| 11 | 10 | 63/3 |
| 12 | 5 | 68/3 |
| 13 | 3 | 71/5 |
| 14 | 6 | 77/6 |
| 15 | 4 | 81/6 |
| 16 | 10 | 91/6 |
| 17 | 2 | 93/7 |
| 18 | 4 | 97/8 |
| 19 | 4 | 101/9 |
| 20 | 9 | 110/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.