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Photo: T.TTTT.TU
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Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Japan Twenty20 Tri-Series · 2025 · Men
8 May 2025 · T20
Sano International Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Japan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Japan started on 83%; Japan batted first.
Japan's chances ranged from 26% to 100% during the match (Thailand: 0% to 74%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akshaykumar Yadavcaught · Charlie Hara-Hinze · B Ito-Davis 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Charlie Hara-Hinze · b B Ito-Davis | 14 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 77.78 |
| Chaloemwong Chatphaisancaught · B Ito-Davis · S Sugaya-Slater 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · B Ito-Davis · b S Sugaya-Slater | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| S Desungnoenrun out · B Ito-Davis · Charlie Hara-Hinze 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · B Ito-Davis | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Austin Lazaruscaught · D Suzuki · Abdul Samad (2) 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · D Suzuki · b Abdul Samad (2) | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
| N Salekarbowled · S Ravichandran 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b S Ravichandran | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Y Saranonnakkunbowled · S Ravichandran 1 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| bowled · b S Ravichandran |
| 6 |
| 11 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 54.55 |
| Jandre Coetzeestumped · A Patmore · Ibrahim Takahashi 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · A Patmore · b Ibrahim Takahashi | 7 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 36.84 |
|---|
| Mukesh Thakurcaught and bowled · Charlie Hara-Hinze 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Charlie Hara-Hinze | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Phanuphong Thongsabowled · K Kato-Stafford 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b K Kato-Stafford | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
| Nopphon Senamontreenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Sarawut Maliwanbowled · K Kato-Stafford 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b K Kato-Stafford | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Hara-Hinze0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| S Sugaya-Slater0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Abdul Samad (2)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| S Ravichandran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 3.67 | 0 | 0 |
| B Ito-Davis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 2.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Ibrahim Takahashi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 3.23 | 0 | 0 |
| K Kato-Stafford0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 0.5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3.60 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Chaloemwong Chatphaisan, 1.4) · 2-7 (S Desungnoen, 2.5) · 3-11 (Austin Lazarus, 3.2) · 4-12 (N Salekar, 4.3) · 5-20 (Y Saranonnakkun, 6.3) · 6-32 (Akshaykumar Yadav, 9.3) · 7-41 (Mukesh Thakur, 12.5) · 8-43 (Jandre Coetzee, 13.4) · 9-49 (Phanuphong Thongsa, 14.4) · 10-49 (Sarawut Maliwan, 15.0)
Recorded target: 111 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 7/2 |
| 4 | 4 | 11/3 |
| 5 | 2 | 13/4 |
| 6 | 7 | 20/4 |
| 7 | 1 | 21/5 |
| 8 | 2 | 23/5 |
| 9 | 8 | 31/5 |
| 10 | 3 | 34/6 |
| 11 | 3 | 37/6 |
| 12 | 2 | 39/6 |
| 13 | 3 | 42/7 |
| 14 | 4 | 46/8 |
| 15 | 3 | 49/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.