WarwickshireversusSurrey

26 Jun 2026 · T20

Edgbaston · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Warwickshire won by 42 runs

Warwickshire20.0 overs172/5 Surrey20.0 overs130/10 Edgbaston ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Warwickshire started on 36%; Warwickshire batted first.

Warwickshire’s chance of winning (%) · Surrey is the rest

Warwickshire's chances ranged from 35% to 100% during the match (Surrey: 0% to 65%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.3: HL Baker to BF Smith, BF Smith out. Warwickshire up from 37% to 50%.
2nd inns 7.4: MSL Taylor to J Spence, J Spence out. Warwickshire up from 49% to 60%.
2nd inns 8.5: GK Davis to PJ Scholfield, PJ Scholfield out. Warwickshire up from 65% to 77%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.