Nigeria beat Uganda for the first time in men's T20Is in a final-ball thriller 😲
ICC · Uploaded 2026-10-26
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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C · 2026/27 · Men
25 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Uganda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nigeria started on 19%; Nigeria batted first.
Nigeria's chances ranged from 6% to 60% during the match (Uganda: 40% to 94%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
ICC · Uploaded 2026-10-26
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghav Dhawancaught · Isaac Okpe · Abdullahi Ismail 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Isaac Okpe · b Abdullahi Ismail | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
| Robinson Obuyacaught · Isaac Danladi · Abdullahi Ismail 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Isaac Danladi · b Abdullahi Ismail | 12 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 150.00 |
| Riazat Ali Shahbowled · Sylvester Okpe 3 fours · 5 sixes | bowled · b Sylvester Okpe | 60 | 36 | 3 | 5 | 166.67 |
| Olipa Geraldcaught · P Aho · Sylvester Okpe 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · P Aho · b Sylvester Okpe | 18 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 81.82 |
| Sumeet Vermacaught · Isaac Danladi · Chima Akachukwu 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Isaac Danladi · b Chima Akachukwu | 12 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 92.31 |
| AR Ramjanicaught · R Abdulkareem · Isaac Okpe 2 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · R Abdulkareem · b Isaac Okpe |
| 20 |
| 18 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 111.11 |
| Kenneth Waiswalbw · Isaac Okpe 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Isaac Okpe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| CN Kakururun out · Ali Rahmon · Vincent Adewoye 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Ali Rahmon | 11 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Juma Miyagirun out · Sylvester Okpe, Chima Akachukwu · Vincent Adewoye 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Sylvester Okpe, Chima Akachukwu | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| J Bagumanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdullahi Ismail0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| K Boniface0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Okpe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Chima Akachukwu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| R Abdulkareem0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 15.50 | 5 | 0 |
| Sylvester Okpe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.2 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Vincent Adewoye0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.4 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-10 (Raghav Dhawan, 2.1) · 2-21 (Robinson Obuya, 3.0) · 3-99 (Olipa Gerald, 11.5) · 4-108 (Riazat Ali Shah, 13.2) · 5-116 (Sumeet Verma, 15.0) · 6-117 (Kenneth Waiswa, 15.3) · 7-143 (AR Ramjani, 19.0) · 8-145 (CN Kakuru, 19.4) · 9-147 (Juma Miyagi, 20.0)
Recorded target: 149 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 21/2 |
| 4 | 13 | 34/2 |
| 5 | 9 | 43/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 44/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 48/2 |
| 8 | 17 | 65/2 |
| 9 | 8 | 73/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 79/2 |
| 11 | 14 | 93/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 100/3 |
| 13 | 7 | 107/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 112/4 |
| 15 | 4 | 116/5 |
| 16 | 5 | 121/6 |
| 17 | 7 | 128/6 |
| 18 | 9 | 137/6 |
| 19 | 6 | 143/7 |
| 20 | 4 | 147/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.