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African Games · 2023/24 · Men
17 Mar 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Nigeria more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Tanzania started on 34%; Tanzania batted first.
Tanzania's chances ranged from 16% to 100% during the match (Nigeria: 0% to 84%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| II Selemanicaught · Mohameed Taiwo · R Abdulkareem 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohameed Taiwo · b R Abdulkareem | 33 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 97.06 |
| J Masquaterstumped · Sulaimon Runsewe · Joshua Asia 5 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Sulaimon Runsewe · b Joshua Asia | 32 | 50 | 5 | 0 | 64.00 |
| S Thakorcaught · Peter Aho · Joshua Asia 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Peter Aho · b Joshua Asia | 17 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 154.55 |
| Salum Jumbecaught · R Abdulkareem · Joshua Asia 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · R Abdulkareem · b Joshua Asia | 14 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 140.00 |
| MO Kitundacaught · Sulaimon Runsewe · P Useni 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sulaimon Runsewe · b P Useni | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| M Yunusu Issanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| not out |
| 7* |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 140.00 |
| Kassim Nassorocaught · R Abdulkareem · Isaac Okpe 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · R Abdulkareem · b Isaac Okpe | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Ally Kimotenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 9 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohameed Taiwo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Peter Aho0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 18.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Isaac Okpe0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 7.67 | 0 | 1 |
| P Useni0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Asia0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 4.50 | 5 | 0 |
| Sylvester Okpe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Isaac Danladi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 5.67 | 1 | 0 |
| R Abdulkareem1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-68 (II Selemani, 10.5) · 2-90 (S Thakor, 15.1) · 3-93 (J Masquater, 16.0) · 4-113 (Salum Jumbe, 18.0) · 5-113 (MO Kitunda, 18.1) · 6-124 (Kassim Nassoro, 19.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 18 | 23/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 29/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 36/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 42/0 |
| 6 | 10 | 52/0 |
| 7 | 1 | 53/0 |
| 8 | 7 | 60/0 |
| 9 | 4 | 64/0 |
| 10 | 2 | 66/0 |
| 11 | 3 | 69/1 |
| 12 | 6 | 75/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 81/1 |
| 14 | 9 | 90/1 |
| 15 | 0 | 90/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 93/3 |
| 17 | 9 | 102/3 |
| 18 | 11 | 113/4 |
| 19 | 11 | 124/5 |
| 20 | 7 | 131/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.