African Games · 2023/24 · Men

TanzaniaversusNigeria

17 Mar 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Tanzania won by 47 runs

Tanzania20.0 overs131/6 Nigeria18.3 overs84/10 Achimota Senior Secondary School B Field, Accra ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nigeria more likely to win

35%Tanzania65%Nigeria

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Nigeria rate stronger than Tanzania (1,511 vs 1,384 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Tanzania won 2 and Nigeria won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Tanzania started on 34%; Tanzania batted first.

Tanzania’s chance of winning (%) · Nigeria is the rest

Tanzania's chances ranged from 16% to 100% during the match (Nigeria: 0% to 84%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.4: AM Kimote to Sulaimon Runsewe, Sulaimon Runsewe out. Tanzania up from 29% to 45%.
2nd inns 8.4: S Thakor to I Danladi, I Danladi out. Tanzania up from 42% to 61%.
2nd inns 10.4: S Thakor to IO Okpe, IO Okpe out. Tanzania up from 57% to 80%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Tanzania131/6 Nigeria84/10

Innings 2

Nigeria

84/1018.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nigeria batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sulaimon Runsewebowled · Ally Kimote 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ally Kimote	16	18	2	0	88.89
Daniel Ajekunrun out · MO Kitunda · Salum Jumbe 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · MO Kitunda	0	0	0	0	—
P Usenibowled · Salum Jumbe 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Salum Jumbe	0	1	0	0	0.00
Sesan Adedejicaught · M Yunusu Issa · YM Nkanya 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · M Yunusu Issa · b YM Nkanya	25	33	2	0	75.76
Isaac Danladilbw · S Thakor 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b S Thakor	6	12	1	0	50.00
Isaac Okperun out · MO Kitunda · S Thakor0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Salum Jumbe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	10	5	2.86	1	0
M Yunusu Issa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	12	0	6.00	0	0
Ally Kimote0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	9	1	4.50	0	0
ZR Jaboneke0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	1	0	1.00	0	0
YM Nkanya0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	1	5.50	0	0
S Thakor0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	1	5.50	5	0
Kassim Nassoro0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	6	0	3.00	0	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/2
2	5	8/2
3	6	14/2
4	7	21/2
5	2	23/3
6	2	25/3
7	7	32/3
8	7	39/3
9	3	42/4
10	7	49/4
11	6	55/5
12	4	59/5
13	3	62/5
14	4	66/6
15	10	76/6
16	3	79/6
17	2	81/9
18	3	84/9
19	0	84/10

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