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ICC Women's World Cup Qualifier · 2025 · Women
18 Apr 2025 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 61%; Scotland batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Forbesrun out · Sarah Bryce, Abtaha Maqsood · Abtaha Maqsood 6 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Sarah Bryce, Abtaha Maqsood | 55 | 66 | 6 | 0 | 83.33 |
| Gaby Lewiscaught · Sarah Bryce · Chloe Abel 9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sarah Bryce · b Chloe Abel | 61 | 72 | 9 | 0 | 84.72 |
| Amy Huntercaught · Sarah Bryce · Katherine Fraser 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sarah Bryce · b Katherine Fraser | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Orla Prendergastcaught · Ailsa Lister · Kathryn Bryce 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ailsa Lister · b Kathryn Bryce | 33 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 75.00 |
| Laura Delanynot out 4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 57* | 63 | 4 | 0 | 90.48 |
Scotland's chances ranged from 25% to 91% during the match (Ireland: 9% to 75%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Katherine Fraser |
| 11 |
| 15 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 73.33 |
| Louise Littlecaught · Katherine Fraser · Chloe Abel 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Katherine Fraser · b Chloe Abel | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Sophie MacMahoncaught · Sarah Bryce · Kathryn Bryce 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sarah Bryce · b Kathryn Bryce | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Jane Maguirecaught · Ailsa Lister · Rachel Slater 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ailsa Lister · b Rachel Slater | 28 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 116.67 |
|---|
| Ava Canningbowled · Kathryn Bryce 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kathryn Bryce | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Cara Murraynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 3 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel Slater1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 28 | 1 | 5.60 | 1 | 0 |
| Katherine Fraser0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 37 | 2 | 3.70 | 3 | 0 |
| Chloe Abel0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 50 | 2 | 5.56 | 3 | 0 |
| Kathryn Bryce0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 49 | 3 | 5.44 | 0 | 0 |
| Abtaha Maqsood0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Priyanaz Chatterji0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 5.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Megan McColl0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 4.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-109 (Sarah Forbes, 19.5) · 2-113 (Amy Hunter, 20.1) · 3-139 (Gaby Lewis, 25.5) · 4-180 (Orla Prendergast, 34.3) · 5-196 (Leah Paul, 38.3) · 6-200 (Louise Little, 39.2) · 7-209 (Sophie MacMahon, 42.2) · 8-262 (Jane Maguire, 49.0) · 9-267 (Ava Canning, 49.4)
Recorded target: 269 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 16/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 20/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 28/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 30/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 35/0 |
| 8 | 4 | 39/0 |
| 9 | 10 | 49/0 |
| 10 | 7 | 56/0 |
| 11 | 7 | 63/0 |
| 12 | 2 | 65/0 |
| 13 | 11 | 76/0 |
| 14 | 8 | 84/0 |
| 15 | 2 | 86/0 |
| 16 | 3 | 89/0 |
| 17 | 4 | 93/0 |
| 18 | 6 | 99/0 |
| 19 | 5 | 104/0 |
| 20 | 9 | 113/1 |
| 21 | 3 | 116/2 |
| 22 | 7 | 123/2 |
| 23 | 4 | 127/2 |
| 24 | 6 | 133/2 |
| 25 | 5 | 138/2 |
| 26 | 1 | 139/3 |
| 27 | 4 | 143/3 |
| 28 | 6 | 149/3 |
| 29 | 5 | 154/3 |
| 30 | 10 | 164/3 |
| 31 | 3 | 167/3 |
| 32 | 6 | 173/3 |
| 33 | 3 | 176/3 |
| 34 | 3 | 179/3 |
| 35 | 4 | 183/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 186/4 |
| 37 | 4 | 190/4 |
| 38 | 4 | 194/4 |
| 39 | 4 | 198/5 |
| 40 | 4 | 202/6 |
| 41 | 3 | 205/6 |
| 42 | 4 | 209/6 |
| 43 | 6 | 215/7 |
| 44 | 12 | 227/7 |
| 45 | 6 | 233/7 |
| 46 | 10 | 243/7 |
| 47 | 6 | 249/7 |
| 48 | 7 | 256/7 |
| 49 | 6 | 262/8 |
| 50 | 7 | 269/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.