West IndiesversusSouth Africa

25 Aug 2024 · T20

Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba, Trinidad · Venue photograph

Recorded result

West Indies won by 30 runs

West Indies20.0 overs179/6 South Africa19.4 overs149/10 Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba, Trinidad ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

West Indies more likely to win

67%West Indies33%South Africa

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, West Indies rate stronger than South Africa (1,673 vs 1,617 on our results rating)
West Indies are playing at home in Trinidad and Tobago
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, West Indies won 6 and South Africa won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 64%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 34% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 66%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 7.2: R Shepherd to AK Markram, AK Markram out. West Indies up from 49% to 64%.
2nd inns 13.5: AJ Hosein to T Stubbs, T Stubbs out. West Indies up from 38% to 51%.
2nd inns 14.4: G Motie to D Ferreira, D Ferreira out. West Indies up from 43% to 61%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.