IrelandversusNetherlands

19 May 2024 · T20

Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Ireland won by 1 runs

Ireland20.0 overs150/8 Netherlands20.0 overs149/8 Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Netherlands more likely to win

23%Ireland77%Netherlands

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Netherlands rate stronger than Ireland (1,603 vs 1,487 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Netherlands won 7 and Ireland won 3
Netherlands are playing at home in the Netherlands

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Ireland started on 20%; Ireland batted first.

Ireland’s chance of winning (%) · Netherlands is the rest

Ireland's chances ranged from 9% to 99% during the match (Netherlands: 1% to 91%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 15.4: F Hand to AT Nidamanuru, AT Nidamanuru out. Ireland up from 58% to 73%.
2nd inns 19.5: MR Adair to TJG Pringle, six by TJG Pringle. Netherlands up from 9% to 51%.
2nd inns 19.6: MR Adair to TJG Pringle, 1 run to TJG Pringle. Ireland up from 49% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Ireland150/8 Netherlands149/8

Innings 2

Netherlands

149/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Netherlands batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Michael Levittcaught · GR Adair · Curtis Campher 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · GR Adair · b Curtis Campher	19	24	2	0	79.17
Max O'Dowdcaught · GR Adair · Curtis Campher 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · GR Adair · b Curtis Campher	33	30	2	1	110.00
Vikramjit Singhcaught · Harry Tector · Fionn Hand 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Harry Tector · b Fionn Hand	1	2	0	0	50.00
Bas de Leedecaught · Lorcan Tucker · Fionn Hand 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Lorcan Tucker · b Fionn Hand	32	29	3	0	110.34
Scott Edwardslbw · Mark Adair 1 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Mark Adair0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	2	8.50	2
Barry McCarthy0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	0	8.50	3
Fionn Hand0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	3	4.50	0
Curtis Campher0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	2	8.25	2
Ben White0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	18	0	9.00	2
George Dockrell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	0	5.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	3	12/0
3	2	14/0
4	6	20/0
5	10	30/0
6	9	39/1
7	5	44/2
8	9	53/2
9	13	66/2
10	3	69/2
11	5	74/2
12	7	81/2
13	6	87/3
14	10	97/3
15	4	101/3
16	2	103/5
17	5	108/6
18	5	113/7
19	18	131/7
20	18	149/8

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