Gujarat GiantsversusRoyal Challengers Bengaluru

14 Feb 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Royal Challengers Bengaluru won by 6 wickets

Gujarat Giants20.0 overs201/5 Royal Challengers Bengaluru18.3 overs202/4 Kotambi Stadium, Vadodara ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gujarat Giants started on 43%; Gujarat Giants batted first.

Gujarat Giants’s chance of winning (%) · Royal Challengers Bengaluru is the rest

Gujarat Giants's chances ranged from 1% to 93% during the match (Royal Challengers Bengaluru: 7% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.3: Renuka Singh to L Wolvaardt, L Wolvaardt out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 42% to 51%.
2nd inns 15.2: A Gardner to RM Ghosh, six by RM Ghosh. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 20% to 32%.
2nd inns 16.2: DJS Dottin to RM Ghosh, four by RM Ghosh. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 58% to 68%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.