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Ireland tour of Namibia · 2026/27 · Men
27 Oct 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Namibia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Namibia started on 53%; Namibia batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Andrew Balbirniecaught · Louren Steenkamp · Ruben Trumpelmann2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Louren Steenkamp · b Ruben Trumpelmann | 20 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 60.61 |
| Cade Carmichaellbw · Bernard Scholtz 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Bernard Scholtz | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Lorcan Tuckerbowled · Jack Brassell 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jack Brassell | 26 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 83.87 |
 Harry Tectorbowled · Ruben Trumpelmann1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ruben Trumpelmann | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 120.00 |
 |
Namibia's chances ranged from 53% to 99% during the match (Ireland: 1% to 47%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Jack Brassell · b Bernard Scholtz |
| 30 |
| 31 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 96.77 |
| Curtis Campherrun out · Malan Kruger, Zane Green · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton 11 fours · 3 sixes | run out · Malan Kruger, Zane Green | 106 | 86 | 11 | 3 | 123.26 |
|---|
 George Dockrellcaught · Louren Steenkamp · Jack Brassell0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Louren Steenkamp · b Jack Brassell | 25 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 51.02 |
|---|
| Gavin Hoeyrun out · Gerhard Erasmus · JJ Smit 1 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Gerhard Erasmus | 21 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Jai Moondralbw · Gerhard Erasmus 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Gerhard Erasmus | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| L McCarthynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Scholtz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 3.10 | 0 | 0 |
| JJ Smit1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.5 | 1 | 40 | 0 | 4.53 | 0 | 0 |
| Ruben Trumpelmann0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 37 | 2 | 5.29 | 1 | 0 |
| Jack Brassell0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 72 | 2 | 9.00 | 6 | 0 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 7.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerhard Erasmus1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 4.20 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (Cade Carmichael, 0.5) · 2-46 (Andrew Balbirnie, 11.0) · 3-46 (Lorcan Tucker, 11.1) · 4-56 (Harry Tector, 12.5) · 5-117 (Andrew McBrine, 21.2) · 6-203 (George Dockrell, 37.2) · 7-246 (Curtis Campher, 42.2) · 8-249 (Jai Moondra, 43.1) · 9-253 (Gavin Hoey, 44.5)
Absent hurt: PR Stirling
Recorded target: 317 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 9/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 15/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 22/1 |
| 6 | 0 | 22/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 28/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 33/1 |
| 9 | 10 | 43/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 44/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 46/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 53/3 |
| 13 | 3 | 56/4 |
| 14 | 3 | 59/4 |
| 15 | 9 | 68/4 |
| 16 | 7 | 75/4 |
| 17 | 6 | 81/4 |
| 18 | 3 | 84/4 |
| 19 | 17 | 101/4 |
| 20 | 3 | 104/4 |
| 21 | 12 | 116/4 |
| 22 | 1 | 117/5 |
| 23 | 2 | 119/5 |
| 24 | 2 | 121/5 |
| 25 | 5 | 126/5 |
| 26 | 3 | 129/5 |
| 27 | 11 | 140/5 |
| 28 | 3 | 143/5 |
| 29 | 15 | 158/5 |
| 30 | 8 | 166/5 |
| 31 | 4 | 170/5 |
| 32 | 12 | 182/5 |
| 33 | 1 | 183/5 |
| 34 | 5 | 188/5 |
| 35 | 9 | 197/5 |
| 36 | 2 | 199/5 |
| 37 | 2 | 201/5 |
| 38 | 8 | 209/6 |
| 39 | 8 | 217/6 |
| 40 | 12 | 229/6 |
| 41 | 5 | 234/6 |
| 42 | 10 | 244/6 |
| 43 | 5 | 249/7 |
| 44 | 1 | 250/8 |
| 45 | 3 | 253/9 |
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew Balbirnie: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Malan Kruger: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew McBrine: AssociateAffiliate · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
