JerseyversusGuernsey

14 Jun 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Jersey won by 100 runs

Jersey20.0 overs160/7 Guernsey17.5 overs60/10 Grainville, St Saviour ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Jersey more likely to win

72%Jersey28%Guernsey

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Jersey rate stronger than Guernsey (1,409 vs 1,347 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Jersey won 2 and Guernsey won 0
Jersey are playing at home in Jersey

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Jersey started on 69%; Jersey batted first.

Jersey’s chance of winning (%) · Guernsey is the rest

Jersey's chances ranged from 67% to 100% during the match (Guernsey: 0% to 33%).

Biggest swings

0.3: E Millington to G Wetherall, six by G Wetherall. Jersey up from 70% to 75%.
0.5: E Millington to G Wetherall, G Wetherall out. Guernsey up from 26% to 33%.
4.5: A Le Ray to A Aikenhead, A Aikenhead out. Guernsey up from 24% to 28%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Jersey160/7 Guernsey60/10

Innings 2

Guernsey

60/1017.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Guernsey batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
PJ Stahelinbowled · O Bastin 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b O Bastin	4	20	0	0	20.00
M Robinsonlbw · Chloe Greechan 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Chloe Greechan	5	8	1	0	62.50
R Merriencaught · Grace Wetherall · Analise Merritt 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Grace Wetherall · b Analise Merritt	2	5	0	0	40.00
A Le Raybowled · Erin Duffy 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Erin Duffy	3	9	0	0	33.33
E Millingtoncaught · O Bastin · Chloe Greechan 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · O Bastin · b Chloe Greechan	19	29	2	0	65.52
K De La Mare

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Chloe Greechan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	6	3	1.57	0	0
Erin Duffy0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls	3.0	15	2	5.00	1	2
Analise Merritt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	7	1	2.33	0	0
O Bastin0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	8	1	4.00	3	0
D Fisher0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	1	5.00	0	0
Maria Da Rocha0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	0	5.00	3	0
Trinity Smith0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	3	1	1.50	2	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	8	9/0
3	1	10/1
4	2	12/2
5	2	14/2
6	1	15/2
7	3	18/3
8	1	19/5
9	6	25/5
10	6	31/5
11	5	36/6
12	5	41/6
13	5	46/6
14	5	51/6
15	2	53/7
16	4	57/8
17	1	58/8
18	2	60/10

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