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Photo: Maghan mal
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
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West Indies Women tour of Pakistan · 2024 · Women
18 Apr 2024 · ODI
National Stadium, Karachi · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 49%; West Indies batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muneeba Alirun out · Hayley Matthews, Rashada Williams · Hayley Matthews 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Hayley Matthews, Rashada Williams | 22 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Sidra Ameencaught and bowled · Chinelle Henry 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Chinelle Henry | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rashada Williams · b Shamilia Connell | 7 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Nida Darcaught · Rashada Williams · Hayley Matthews 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rashada Williams · b Hayley Matthews | 19 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 70.37 |
| Aliya Riazlbw · Afy Fletcher0 fours · 0 sixes |
West Indies's chances ranged from 35% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 66%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Afy Fletcher |
| 16 |
| 30 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 53.33 |
| Fatima Sanacaught and bowled · Afy Fletcher 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Afy Fletcher | 10 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 43.48 |
|---|
| Najiha Alvicaught and bowled · Hayley Matthews 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Hayley Matthews | 20 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 64.52 |
|---|
| Tuba Hassanlbw · Zaida James 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Zaida James | 25 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 108.70 |
|---|
| Diana Baigcaught · Rashada Williams · Hayley Matthews 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rashada Williams · b Hayley Matthews | 10 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
| Sadia Iqbalcaught · Karishma Ramharack · Zaida James 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Karishma Ramharack · b Zaida James | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
|---|
| Nashra Sandhunot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 16 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 3.80 | 3 | 0 | |
| 5.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 6.00 | 8 | 0 | |
| 7.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 2.71 | 1 | 0 | |
| 6.0 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 2.83 | 2 | 0 | |
| 5.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 6.60 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zaida James0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 3.65 | 0 | 0 |
1-7 (Sidra Ameen, 1.1) · 2-24 (Bismah Maroof, 5.0) · 3-59 (Nida Dar, 12.0) · 4-65 (Muneeba Ali, 13.3) · 5-93 (Fatima Sana, 21.0) · 6-100 (Aliya Riaz, 23.0) · 7-137 (Tuba Hassan, 29.2) · 8-149 (Najiha Alvi, 32.1) · 9-154 (Diana Baig, 34.1) · 10-156 (Sadia Iqbal, 35.5)
Recorded target: 270 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 14/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 16/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 23/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 24/2 |
| 6 | 2 | 26/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 28/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 33/2 |
| 9 | 7 | 40/2 |
| 10 | 10 | 50/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 52/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 59/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 64/3 |
| 14 | 2 | 66/4 |
| 15 | 4 | 70/4 |
| 16 | 5 | 75/4 |
| 17 | 2 | 77/4 |
| 18 | 5 | 82/4 |
| 19 | 3 | 85/4 |
| 20 | 6 | 91/4 |
| 21 | 2 | 93/5 |
| 22 | 5 | 98/5 |
| 23 | 2 | 100/6 |
| 24 | 5 | 105/6 |
| 25 | 7 | 112/6 |
| 26 | 6 | 118/6 |
| 27 | 4 | 122/6 |
| 28 | 11 | 133/6 |
| 29 | 3 | 136/6 |
| 30 | 3 | 139/7 |
| 31 | 4 | 143/7 |
| 32 | 6 | 149/7 |
| 33 | 2 | 151/8 |
| 34 | 3 | 154/8 |
| 35 | 0 | 154/9 |
| 36 | 2 | 156/10 |
Hayley Matthews: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Stafanie Taylor: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chinelle Henry: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Bismah Maroof: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shamilia Connell: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.