PanamaversusTurks and Caicos Island

17 Apr 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Panama won by 49 runs

Panama19.0 overs145/10 Turks and Caicos Island18.2 overs96/10 Clayton Panama, Panama City ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Panama more likely to win

66%Panama34%Turks and Caicos Island

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Panama rate stronger than Turks and Caicos Island (1,274 vs 1,200 on our results rating)
Panama are playing at home in Panama

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Panama started on 65%; Panama batted first.

Panama’s chance of winning (%) · Turks and Caicos Island is the rest

Panama's chances ranged from 19% to 100% during the match (Turks and Caicos Island: 0% to 81%).

Biggest swings

7.4: G Kuthalingham to A Natubhai Ahir, A Natubhai Ahir out. Turks and Caicos Island up from 66% to 80%.
2nd inns 10.4: Sohel Patel to E Henry, E Henry out. Panama up from 67% to 80%.
2nd inns 12.6: Sohel Patel to J Daley, J Daley out. Panama up from 63% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Panama145/10 Turks and Caicos Island96/10

Innings 1

Panama

145/1019.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Panama batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
P Jayeshbhai Patelbowled · R Johnson 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b R Johnson	1	6	0	0	16.67
Meet Ahirbowled · R Johnson 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b R Johnson	4	7	0	0	57.14
Breeze Ahircaught · A McKnight · D St Ange 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · A McKnight · b D St Ange	15	16	2	0	93.75
Sohel Patelbowled · D St Ange 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b D St Ange	7	11	0	0	63.64
Irfan Hafejeebowled · G Bruno 3 fours · 2 sixes	bowled · b G Bruno	33	22	3	2	150.00
A Natubhai Ahircaught · G Bruno · G Kuthalingham0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
D Bourne0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	6	0
R Johnson0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	16	2	8.00	3	1
D St Ange0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	2	5.00	0	0
G Kuthalingham0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	1	4.50	1	0
G Bruno0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	2	10.00	5	0
M Smith0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	29	1	9.67	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	6	10/1
3	9	19/1
4	10	29/2
5	2	31/2
6	2	33/2
7	8	41/4
8	2	43/5
9	6	49/5
10	7	56/5
11	12	68/5
12	7	75/5
13	11	86/6
14	9	95/6
15	14	109/7
16	2	111/8
17	7	118/8
18	18	136/9
19	9	145/10

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.